Here Is The Huge Bond Spike

Discussion in 'Financial Futures' started by bebe, Mar 6, 2004.

  1. bebe

    bebe

    Here is the 1-second chart of the huge bond spike yesterday morning.
    The news came out at 8:30am EST.
    Starting at 8:29:48 (just 12 seconds before the announcement) somebody buys 5,000 contracts in 3 seconds. The price spikes almost a full point.
    The news hits the wire. The price goes up another full point during the first one minute.
    If those 4 volume spikes belong to the original pumper (now he was selling) he averaged a point and made a total of exactly $5million in profits in approx. 90 seconds.
    Question: who caused the price to spike?
     
  2. Yeah I saw this. Bunds & Bobl (german 10 and 5 year equivalents) went up before the figure too.

    I suspect someone got the news ahead of time.
     
  3. I agree. You have to remember that these figures are compiled and released by government bureaucrats that can't be to hard to bribe.
     
  4. pspr

    pspr

    Didn't we just have a thread about Steven Cohen (I think that's the name) who makes millions trading news by getting it a few seconds/minutes before everyone else? I'm not aware of the mechanics of the release of the unemployment report but if you had the same direct source as the news wire services have, you would be able to get the report a few seconds before it crossed the news wires.

    Likewise, Greenspan releases a copy of many of his testimonies seconds before he begins. If you were in position to hire someone to be there and analyze those releases before it is read on TV or is analyzed by the news wires, you would get a jump on everyone else.

    The dissemination of news, although close to getting to everyone at the same time, actually gets to those who are willing to pay for "boots on the ground" reporting a little sooner and they are going to get a jump on the rest of us.
     
  5. ertrader1

    ertrader1 Guest

    conspiracy man, IM TELLING YOU ITS A CONSPIRACY....GREENSPAN TOLD PERSON A, who told PERSON B who called BUSH at the whitehouse, BUSH DID SOME LINES, then called RUMSFELD, RUMSFELD DENIED ALL THEN CALLED DICK, who CALLED the BOND FLOOR to tell the BOND TRADERS THE NEWS before it was released and BINGO....that is what cause the SPIKE>

    is it amature time again?
     
  6. McCloud

    McCloud

    Oh well!... remember on Oct. 31, 2001 when the Treasury Department decided to no longer issue 30-year government bonds, the news was supposed to be embargoed until 10:00 a.m. that day. According to the court documents a government consultant called Youngdahl and tipped him off, then Youngdahl called and relayed the news to Goldman Sachs bond traders at 9:35! Goldman traders bought up $84 million in 30-year bonds and $233.6 million in bond futures..... apparently they made million of dollars in just 8 minutes on that tip!
     
  7. PetaDollar

    PetaDollar Moderator

    From Wycoff's 1910 Book "Studies in Tape Reading":

    "Of course the break in Gas, which finally touched 138, was due to the Supreme Court decision, announced on the news tickers at 1:10pm, but, as is usually the case, the tape told the news many minutes before anything else. This is one of the advantages of getting your news from the first place where it is reflected. Other people who wait for such information to sift through telephone and telegraph wires... are working under a tremendous handicap... those who heard the decision in the Supreme Court chamber doubtless did the double-quick to the telephone and sold the stock short. Their sales showed on the tape before the news arrive in New York. Tape Readers were, therefore, first to be notified. They were short before the Street knew what had happend."

    So us little guys had 12 - 3 = 7 seconds to hop on board with this insider. (No, I didn't, I don't trade or watch the bonds yet.)
     
  8. Seriously I woke up a little later than usual and missed the long.

    The trade was there and I hesitated.:mad: :mad:

    I was soooo mad at myself I proceeded to trade like an idiot the rest of the day and to add injury to insult took a $1500 loss on the day...

    The bonds have been trading so weird lately anyone that has been trading them actively over the last 6 months can tell you this.

    The only explanation I have for there recent erratic behavior is Seasonality or contract rollover but thats not enough to make them behave like this.

    So my vote goes with Government Manipulation at this time.
     
  9. Check out this chart on the 30 min .... This one really hurt:( :(
     
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  10. Come on... Also, was looking at the euro at that time and it didn't seem to have any suspicious activity, at time of bloomberg release, so if anything you guys might want to do is adjust your watch to reflect Actual time. Insider timers are no idiots they don't just pile up contracts for everyone to see, they do it accross a broad range of products so that it is harder to figure out.
     
    #10     Mar 6, 2004