Discussion in 'Trading' started by jonnysharp, Aug 4, 2006.
even a chipmink can make money for a day. But, in the long run, brokers and the zero sum crowd will have all your money.
Have you ever thought that you may be correct? The common statistic touted around these boards is a 95% failure rate. If you take that statistic into account, then maybe only 5% can make money constantly in the markets. So, maybe you are correct and you fall into that 95% category.
Now what is interesting is the fact that you are going to argue that either the 95% statistic is incorrect, or you are or should be in the 5% after you have basically publicly capitulated.
Maybe 95% of this game is psychology and mental and only 5% are capable of mastering these aspects of the game. I don't know, maybe the 5% that make it would have eventually lost it if they wouldn't have stopped trading or their "time is coming".
So, in the end, I'll give you you're arguments main premise; markets are too efficient, more efficient than one's ability to consistently make quick, correct choices and follow through with efficient execution. Now, after having conceded to you the main premise of your argument, I have to ask why do you consistently attempt the impossible?
Maybe it's just time to move on and stop trying to find angles for mastering a game that cannot be mastered for it is impossible due to the fact of your "efficient market's" theory.
I am accustomed to the odds being relatively low in my favor.
As an American citizen I expect that I am amongst the 5% of the world population. As far as wealth goes I'm probably within the top 2 percent of world population. IQ top 5%. Professional school top 8% were selected and graduated in the top third of my class.
So the 95% failure rate of persons who attempt trading although it is daunting it does not appear insurmountable to me.
Besides even if you are correct that I have not played long enough to lose I don't consider that a big problem. I have absolutely no problem losing everything the last week of my life and once again just satisfying the statistical norm .
It took me 3 years of HARD WORK, and every day of trading to still be in the dark. I mean, I really cannot see anyone else making it considering I am bright, intelligent, smart, extremely hardworking etc etc and graduated from one of the finest universities etc, and have read a lot of books in that time span.
I believe for pretty much everyone, to learn to trade without without a mentor would be IMPOSSIBLE (considering no sane profitable mentor would waste their time, the only way to do it is by yourself).
This is a pretty funny comment. If you share with us what you have tried over the past few years, and maybe someone here can steer you in the right direction.
Haha maybe you're not humble enough?
Seriously though ... tell us some more about your trading style/vehicles you trade etc.
I really don't think its what I tried, but more along the lines of what happens to a person as they progresses along the trading curve.
First and formost, everyone underestimates how long it would take them. Then they over trade and end up running out of money to trade to make trading worthwhile. etc... by then you lose all your enthusiasm and throw in the towel.
Yeah, but how did the mentors learn it at the beginning? Was there a First mentor or something???
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