Discussion in 'Strategy Development' started by Quantfisher, Mar 28, 2017.
That's correct surf, ye, mate, sir. He didn't invent THE STATISTIC (or a bunch of aliases).
Ok, just confirming its the same guy---
Just wondering why you prefer him as a mentor over a verified and consistent retail trader who progressed to be a billion dollar fund manager?
Open is volatile sure, but the bid ask spread of many stocks reflect this. How do you overcome this if you are not a HFT?
So easy a caveman or cavelady could do it. The bar for calling ones self a quant just hit a new low.
Apart from your initial trade, which has to be a breakout trade near the open, your goal is to buy below the open and sell above the open. If price moves more than 1-2 standard deviations past your open trade stop level, you no longer want to fade it. However, the opportunity exists within this zone.
ET has a lot of standard deviants
There is some validity to the basis of the argument put forth. In an efficient market scenario where there are no events of any type during the day, the price reached during the first 30 minutes can be indicative of the price for the remaining of the day.
The first 30 minutes is usually spent trying to balance all the orders, depending on the volume. Once this is done, a good 'price' for the day can be determined.
However, should there be *any* event during the day: Data, Systemic, Political, Corporate or even Insitutional, the price will then fluctuoate afterwards.
So, in theory, in a vacuum, it could be accurate. Perhaps it would be useful mechanism 100 years (or maybe even 70 years?) ago, when there was little additional information made available during the day. But nowadays with the constant influx of information the price can change dramatically.
It is possible to occasionally see what is being suggested nowadays, but that is more an indicator of a slow news day. If one can forsee days where there will be no events of any sort than one can more accurately determine the price. But then, that is almost the definition of an efficient market.
? What's the point of placing the stop loss at all if it's highly unlikely to hit? So I place my stoploss sell at -50%, which is very low-risk! Very helpful that stoploss...
Statistically speaking, this thread has a very likely probability to hit the stoploss at the higher average daily range of nonsense.
Separate names with a comma.