Intraday price direction is strictly supply/demand. It will move roughly 70% of the avg daily range for the past 10 days in the first 30 minutes of trading. Quite simple. Agree that two trades per day creates plenty of opportunity to consistently make a profit.
You forgot to add one complex variable. It’s called volatility. Not that simple, as it constantly grinds away at your win rate.
This is typical ET. Quantfisher is attempting to be helpful. His premise and information is correct. Pesavento reference is absolutely statically and quickly verified. Just do some on your own to grasp what Quant is stating. It works. It tests out. Prove it by doing some work. Sorry Quantfisher for the ET bash away crowd. Most cannot recognize what is valuable and what is not.
Sorry but you have it partly right. This is so simple that it may be difficult to understand what Quant has stated. Suggest you obtain book he referenced. Larry Pesavento book: "Opening Price Principle"
what have i partly right..and what is so simple? the OPP by LP is not the best way to trade the open..nor is his gartley pattern of any real value..or his antiquated fib card!!! remember why all these people "write" stuff..for the gullible public averages will do more for your bottom line than any other spin doctor's remedy..but..as with anything worthwhile..there is some time and dedication required..which..most are too lazy to commit to!!