. Toc: Also, you mentioned Free Market is Free Movement of Labor, does this mean 75% of South America, Asia and Africa should pour and park inside the US/Canada etc.? ********* May 26, 2007 SouthAmerica: If you believe in Free Market â that means let the market rule and make all the decisions and set all the prices in the global economy; including the flow of capital, of investments, and the flow of labor. Labor used to be part of production costs as far as I know â why free market thinking should not apply also to the global movement of labor? If you really believe in a free market economy then you also believe in a free global movement of labor. It is that simple. You canât call yourself a free market believer if you believe that you should have only a free market economy related to the free global movement of capital, resources, investments, and goods â but it does not apply to a free global movement of labor. Free market thinking it does not apply to labor â just to the parts of the production process that are convenient for Free Market ideology. ************** 1000: the above, about hedge and private equity funds, suggests that you are just guessing, i am sure that there is an SEC and a CFTC to protect the market ************ SouthAmerica: No I am guessing. The Mutual Funds industry is closely regulated by the SEC. The Hedge Fund and the Private Equity groups can do anything they want with the money invested on these funds and there is no government regulation and there is no transparency for the government or the public to find out what these groups are up to. .
'You canât call yourself a free market believer if you believe that you should have only a free market economy related to the free global movement of capital, resources, investments, and goods â but it does not apply to a free global movement of labor.' I am not against immigration and movement of peoples seeking better opportunities. But this does not mean that millions arrive at another country and become an unemployed headache for the new nation. If they park on the road side and starve then WEST will be called Evil and other fancy names. US is not 100% free market and therefore 100% free market variable do not apply even to the US. Thus if US has immigration barriers and checks on numbers that can immigrate, then that policy makes sense and is practical and just. SA, you are pathetic person........your types are the ones who mislead people in the third world into thinking that it is all hopeless for them in their own countries and only way out is to go to the US/West. With this thinking and guidence, no wonder third world is in shabby and crappy shape and then we have journislists like you ranting for commie causes but still wanting to send poeple to the west. Shamelessness that is called!
. September 21, 2007 SouthAmerica: On May 22, 2007 when oil was trading at $ 65 per barrel on world markets I gave an example of how Saudi Arabia could bring the price of oil on world markets to about US$ 100 per barrel. Today and in the coming months Saudi Arabia and the oil producing countries of the Middle East will not need to do anything extraordinary to bring the price of oil to the US$ 100 per barrel level. All the oil producing countries have to do is adjust the value of oil in relation to the declining value of the US dollar on world markets. Today the price of oil reached US$ 82 per barrel and I would not be surprised to see the price of oil reaching the US$ 100 per barrel level some time during 2008. Since 2008 is an election year I donât know what kind of game the oil producing countries are going to play regarding the price of oil. But if I was Saudi Arabia and the oil producing countries of the Middle East I would test the US$ 100 per barrel price of oil on world markets. The American population continued driving as usual even with the US$ 80 per barrel price of oil â now it is time to test the next level for the price of oil the US$ 100 per barrel. The oil producing countries should take the suckers in the US for a ride â and at the same time a very profitable ride for the oil producing countries. Adjusted for the declining value of the US dollar it is not unreasonable to increase the price of a barrel of oil to the US$ 100 level in terms of US dollars. Basically the US government is the culprit on this story since the US government is not protecting the intrinsic value of the US dollar. ************ May 22, 2007 SouthAmerica: Here is an economic game Saudi Arabia can play that can be very profitable to them. It was obvious to me that the major petroleum companies have been playing games with the price of gas for a long time â and I know that the American Petroleum companies are going to play the same old game once again similar to the game they did play last year when gas prices reached $ 3.25 per gallon for the cheapest gas during the summer of 2006, then the prices declined to the lowest point of $ 2.00 per gallon in November 2006 on election day - and the following day after the election the petroleum companies restarted their game on the way up and once again they are taking the American people for a ride and gas prices have reached new high all over the United States. Today the barrel of petroleum is trading at around US$ 65 per barrel. In my opinion it would be very easy for the Saudi Arabian government to make the price of a barrel of oil to go over US$ 100 per barrel and they can accomplish that overnight. I have observed over time some US government strategy at work and just keep in mind that the United States government has brainwashed the American people into fear terrorist attacks, and basically today Americans would buy anything in that regard that is why every time something is going wrong with some kind of investigation regarding the current administration or a major problem is going on in the Middle East â they use the terrorism card and a new terrorist plot is brought forward to take attention of the other problem. Today I donât believe on anything the US government say about terrorist plots â and I assume only gullible Americans still believe on those fairy tales. But for good or worse the American people is ripe to be taken for a ride because of their mindset regarding terrorism. Why Saudi Arabia is not learning from the major American oil companies how to take the American public for a ride since it would be a piece of cake for Saudi Arabia to play the same game that the major American oil companies have been playing and Saudi Arabia can make the price of oil to go overnight to over US$ 100 per barrel on the international market. When the price of oil reaches over US$ 100 per barrel that can translate in billions and billions of extra dollars going to the coffers of the petroleum producing countries in the Middle East. How they can do that overnight? It is very simple â remember the mindset of the American people regarding terrorism â all the Saudis have to do is stage a terrorist attack on one of their major oil production facilities â they can hire a movie making crew to make the attack to seem real â like in the movie âWag the Dogâ â but in this case they have to stage in such a way that has to look real even to the satellites from out of space that would be taking pictures to access the damage. The illusion that a good filmmaker can create today in making such a war scenes can make it look as if it was the real thing. Voila, no actual damage to the Saudi Arabian production capacity, but instead the illusion that the production capacity would be disabled for months until they can be repaired and returned once again to production. In the meantime they can pocket billions and billions of extra dollar and they can laugh all the way to the bank. Basically that staged terrorist attack by the Saudi government would not be any different than what the major oil companies are doing today to the American people â they would just be taking the American people to the cleaners. The major oil companies are allowed to that the American people to the cleaners all the time then we can assume that the oil producing countries also should be able to get away with that kind of market manipulation. If other oil producing countries try to use that strategy that would not have the same impact as if the Saudis did that themselves â only the Saudis have the power to push the price of oil to over US $ 100 per barrel. The price of oil on world markets would react to the way up based on the illusion that has been created instead of the actual reality. The oil traders would react to the perception of what they think that has happened â to the staged illusion created for them. If Saudi Arabia decides to play such an economic game I wonder how many extra billion dollars that game can provide to their coffers when the price of oil jumps from the current US$ 65 per barrel to over US$ 100 per barrel overnight. .
Another reason why EMs are going to get hit. The need to keep their currencies somewhat pegged to the $ as it falls so that they don't lose their export business and also so their companies can survive given how tight margins were before the $ started its latest foray lower. Bu wait they need to buy oil too. Rock and a hard place. Global economic contraction.
. November 1, 2007 SouthAmerica: When I posted the following information on this forum on May 22, 2007 oil was trading in world markets at $ 65 dollars per barrel of oil, and the US dollar was trading at US$ 1.33 = euro $ 1.00 Yesterday October 31, 2007 a little over 5 months later oil was trading in world markets at $ 96 dollars per barrel of oil, and the US dollar was trading at US$ 1.45 = euro $ 1.00 The US$ 100 dollar price per barrel of oil is around the corner â the transfer of wealth from the oil consuming countries to the oil producing countries it is amazing. Saudi Arabia and the other oil producing countries of the Middle East are laughing all the way to the bank â and they should take all these fools for a ride because they never learn their lesson. The impact of these massive oil price increases it does not affect the Brazilian economy as much as the economy of these countries that are addicted to oil. All I can say is take the fools to the cleaners. ******** May 22, 2007 SouthAmerica: Reply to Cesko It is a basic rule of finance and capitalism - the Saudis have to test how much money they can get for their resources - how much is too high a price for a barrel of oil? A few years ago many economists assumed that the entire world would go into a major recession if the price of oil reached the levels that we have seen in the last year. But today most economists are saying that the price of oil in the range of US$ 50 to US$ 70 per barrel is here to stay. Why not push it to US$ 100 per barrel to test that price level - and the Saudis have another incentive to do that since the value of the US dollar has been declining for a long time. Just keep in mind it is just a game and they have to test what kind price they can get away with. It is pure capitalism. Source: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...+test+the+100+dollar+price+of+oil#post1476051 .
Why aren't increasing gas prices pushing the US into recession? Here's my answer: Take a look at the US in the dead of night from space and you'll see that most of the population is clustered along the coasts and in a few areas around the great lakes (you can see this because this is where most of the light is emitted from). Well, what's going on on the coasts? People are making bank is what's going on. And (speaking from experience), they are doing it at the expense of thier midwestern counterparts (ever heard of "near-shoring")? So, you have large population clusters on the coasts, who make most of the money in this country- and who spend a disproporitionate share (last I checked there was no Neiman Marcus in Oklahoma) - who are simply unaffected by the marginal increase in the price of oil and gas. I believe that the single punch of high gas prices can be withstood by Californians. However, it remains to be seen if the one-two punch of high oil and a diminishing Wealth Effect (only 85% of consumption is funded by income and consumer credit - the rest from capital gains on securities and real estate) from the lagging housing market. If Californians cannot withstand both negative events, then it's possible we go into a mild recession. NYers on the other hand simply don't have the same demand function for oil and will act as a stop-gap so long as the daisy chain of consumer spending-corporate earning-labor demand doesn't get too far along in the opposite direction of its current trajectory.
. November 1, 2007 SouthAmerica: Reply to GodsGift Maybe the Saudis have been reading my postings here on this Forum and decided to test the US$ 100 dollar price per barrel of oil. When the fools are giving you a chance then you have to go for the kill. About 3 months ago the Gulf States of the Middle East - the oil producing countries were holding US$ 1.6 trillion in dollars assets - and at this rate in no time they will be holding US$ 2 trillion dollars. And very soon Ben Bernanke instead of taking his orders from CityBank about the Fed Funds Rate cuts - he will need to start calling his new bosses in China and the Middle East before he changes the Fed Funds Rate again. .
What purpose does such hyperbole serve other than to invalidate your point before even giving yourself a chance to be heard (read)?
. 05-22-07 08:48 PM SouthAmerica: Here is an economic game Saudi Arabia can play that can be very profitable to them. â¦Today the barrel of petroleum is trading at around US$ 65 per barrel. In my opinion it would be very easy for the Saudi Arabian government to make the price of a barrel of oil to go over US$ 100 per barrel and they can accomplish that overnight. â¦When the price of oil reaches over US$ 100 per barrel that can translate in billions and billions of extra dollars going to the coffers of the petroleum producing countries in the Middle East. â¦If Saudi Arabia decides to play such an economic game I wonder how many extra billion dollars that game can provide to their coffers when the price of oil jumps from the current US$ 65 per barrel to over US$ 100 per barrel overnight. ****** Cesko: Do you really believe Saudis actually want that to happen? I doubt it. ****** May 22, 2007 SouthAmerica: Reply to Cesko It is a basic rule of finance and capitalism - the Saudis have to test how much money they can get for their resources - how much is too high a price for a barrel of oil? A few years ago many economists assumed that the entire world would go into a major recession if the price of oil reached the levels that we have seen in the last year. But today most economists are saying that the price of oil in the range of US$ 50 to US$ 70 per barrel is here to stay. Why not push it to US$ 100 per barrel to test that price level - and the Saudis have another incentive to do that since the value of the US dollar has been declining for a long time. Just keep in mind it is just a game and they have to test what kind price they can get away with. ********** March 11, 2008 SouthAmerica: Today oil traded at US $ 110 per barrel, and the US dollar has declined a lot since May of 2007. If the Saudis were not happy with the price of oil at US $ 110 a barrel and still moving up, then they would have increased the amount of supply to lower the international price of oil. Today the Saudis are getting billions of extra US dollars for their oil in another words they are getting tons of new confetti I wonder what happened to all the guys who used to give me a hard time about my predictions and suggestions? .