. May 22, 2007 SouthAmerica: One month ago I was talking to a friend of mine who has a boat business here in New Jersey and he was telling me how his business was lucky to break even last year and this year he does not expect to make any money once again. The culprit â gas prices â gas prices killed his business last year and in 2007 since he knew that the American oil companies were playing the same game once again then he sold all his inventory since January at cost just to stop any carrying costs that he knew it would be hard to recover during the summer months. One of his customers work for a major oil company and he told my friend a few months ago that the major oil companies had coordinated their refinery closings to do maintenance work to reduce the gasoline inventory in the market for them to be able to jack up the prices of gas to the American public just as the summer driving season begun. Since the price of gas had killed my friends business last year â this year he learned his lesson and sold all his inventory away before he would on normal years and he sold it at cost just to not be caught with his pants down because of the high price of gas. He is glad that his friend mentioned to him early in the year about the game that the US petroleum companies are playing here in the United States with the price of gas â that gave him the chance to cut his losses away in advance and sell all his inventory. Most of the competition to my friend business went out of business in the last 20 years and he is one of the sole survivors in our area of the country and he does not have any inventory if there are any customers during this summer time. ************* Here is an economic game Saudi Arabia can play that can be very profitable to them. It was obvious to me that the major petroleum companies have been playing games with the price of gas for a long time â and I know that the American Petroleum companies are going to play the same old game once again similar to the game they did play last year when gas prices reached $ 3.25 per gallon for the cheapest gas during the summer of 2006, then the prices declined to the lowest point of $ 2.00 per gallon in November 2006 on election day - and the following day after the election the petroleum companies restarted their game on the way up and once again they are taking the American people for a ride and gas prices have reached new high all over the United States. Today the barrel of petroleum is trading at around US$ 65 per barrel. In my opinion it would be very easy for the Saudi Arabian government to make the price of a barrel of oil to go over US$ 100 per barrel and they can accomplish that overnight. I have observed over time some US government strategy at work and just keep in mind that the United States government has brainwashed the American people into fear terrorist attacks, and basically today Americans would buy anything in that regard that is why every time something is going wrong with some kind of investigation regarding the current administration or a major problem is going on in the Middle East â they use the terrorism card and a new terrorist plot is brought forward to take attention of the other problem. Today I donât believe on anything the US government say about terrorist plots â and I assume only gullible Americans still believe on those fairy tales. But for good or worse the American people is ripe to be taken for a ride because of their mindset regarding terrorism. Why Saudi Arabia is not learning from the major American oil companies how to take the American public for a ride since it would be a piece of cake for Saudi Arabia to play the same game that the major American oil companies have been playing and Saudi Arabia can make the price of oil to go overnight to over US$ 100 per barrel on the international market. When the price of oil reaches over US$ 100 per barrel that can translate in billions and billions of extra dollars going to the coffers of the petroleum producing countries in the Middle East. How they can do that overnight? It is very simple â remember the mindset of the American people regarding terrorism â all the Saudis have to do is stage a terrorist attack on one of their major oil production facilities â they can hire a movie making crew to make the attack to seem real â like in the movie âWag the Dogâ â but in this case they have to stage in such a way that has to look real even to the satellites from out of space that would be taking pictures to access the damage. The illusion that a good filmmaker can create today in making such a war scenes can make it look as if it was the real thing. Voila, no actual damage to the Saudi Arabian production capacity, but instead the illusion that the production capacity would be disabled for months until they can be repaired and returned once again to production. In the meantime they can pocket billions and billions of extra dollar and they can laugh all the way to the bank. Basically that staged terrorist attack by the Saudi government would not be any different than what the major oil companies are doing today to the American people â they would just be taking the American people to the cleaners. The major oil companies are allowed to that the American people to the cleaners all the time then we can assume that the oil producing countries also should be able to get away with that kind of market manipulation. If other oil producing countries try to use that strategy that would not have the same impact as if the Saudis did that themselves â only the Saudis have the power to push the price of oil to over US $ 100 per barrel. The price of oil on world markets would react to the way up based on the illusion that has been created instead of the actual reality. The oil traders would react to the perception of what they think that has happened â to the staged illusion created for them. If Saudi Arabia decides to play such an economic game I wonder how many extra billion dollars that game can provide to their coffers when the price of oil jumps from the current US$ 65 per barrel to over US$ 100 per barrel overnight. .
When the price of oil reaches over US$ 100 per barrel that can translate in billions and billions of extra dollars going to the coffers of the petroleum producing countries in the Middle East. Do you really believe Saudis actually want that to happen? I doubt it.
. May 22, 2007 SouthAmerica: Reply to Cesko It is a basic rule of finance and capitalism - the Saudis have to test how much money they can get for their resources - how much is too high a price for a barrel of oil? A few years ago many economists assumed that the entire world would go into a major recession if the price of oil reached the levels that we have seen in the last year. But today most economists are saying that the price of oil in the range of US$ 50 to US$ 70 per barrel is here to stay. Why not push it to US$ 100 per barrel to test that price level - and the Saudis have another incentive to do that since the value of the US dollar has been declining for a long time. Just keep in mind it is just a game and they have to test what kind price they can get away with. It is pure capitalism. .
But they have to worry about the other side, alternative energy will gain a lot strength at $100 barrel oil. Imagine the heat the congress will get from the citizens, that means more coal, nat gas, nuclear, less imported ethanol tarrifs
If US economy merely sneezes, the rest of the world immediately catches flu and cold. $100/brl will bring recession to US and depression to the rest of the world. On the otherhand, how about having some mass production gameplan in India and China of Corn based ethanol using the vastly cheap and well skilled Indo-Chinese labor force. A GAMEPLAN THAT WOULD BANKRUPT THE MIDDLE EASTERN KINGDOMS IN ONE SHOT. SA what do ya think, your Brazilian cars are already 75% running on ethanol.
. May 22, 2007 SouthAmerica: Reply to Daal Remember this is only a game like the one the major oil companies have been playing in the United States since the oil shock of the mid 1970âs. They have been getting away with their game for over 30 years â do you think Americans are going to get smart overnight? Besides after they cash their chips and take the American public to the cleaners â they back up a bit â just enough to make everybody who started some kind of project related to energy to get discouraged because the price of a barrel of oil has made their project too costly. Then they can play the same game all over again and the suckers will be caught with their pants down once again. It is like taking candy away from little kids. By the way, Americans would go crazy if the US Congress decided to create tariffs on imported oil â Americans want to be able to continue driving their big SUVâs at any price â even with the price of oil reaching over the US$ 100 per barrel level. The Saudis have time on their side since it takes a lot of time and money to develop all these new sources of energy including nuclear power. ********** Toc: If US economy merely sneezes, the rest of the world immediately catches flu and cold. $100/brl will bring recession to US and depression to the rest of the world. On the other hand, how about having some mass production gameplan in India and China of Corn based ethanol using the vastly cheap and well skilled Indo-Chinese labor force. ************** SouthAmerica: Reply to Toc As I said before â the economists have been saying that the price of oil at US$ 70 per barrel would bring a global recession. Where is the global recession? Besides if we adjust the price of oil to the decline of the US dollar in the last few years â then we can assume that the global economy can survive when the price of a barrel of oil reaches US$ 100. Remember the value of the US dollar will continue to decline in world markets in the coming months and years â it is just a matter of time for the adjusted price of a barrel of oil to reach the US$ 100 value. It is not the actual value of a barrel of oil that is going up â it is the value of oil priced in a declining currency that is going up to make up for the declining value of the US dollar. The days of pricing oil in international markets based on US dollars are probably at the end of its useful life and the oil producing countries will find a better way to price oil in the international markets other than price it in US dollars. Regarding your plan to mass-produce ethanol from corn in India and China â forget that plan since it is a terrible idea in many ways. .
You claim one US company has manipulated the oil market for decades?I dont want to sound repetitive but boy does this sounds like conspiracy theory. If the nutheads in the middle east thought this stuff were on their interest you dont think they would've done already? Their smart, they know the last thing they need is a boom on alternative energy investment that would kill their long-run profits in exchange for short-term money. If you think people can manipulate the market so easly, look at opec how many times they tried to fix the price at certain level but the interest of their own members got in the way and the agreeements broke out
BTW, Canadian tar sands have more oil than Saudi, Kuwait and Iraq. Got to find cheaper way to extract or process it.
No, but any major disruption to supply anywhere in the world would have significant price implications, regardless of what region is affected. The supply/demand equation is already tight and shrinking, so if one of the top producers were to suffer a large reduction in production for a significant period of time the price would skyrocket. I tend to agree that such a plot as SouthAmerica has described is not in the oil producing countries' best interest and consequently would not be attempted. The current price of oil is more than sufficient for the producing nations' profit margins, and people still seem willing to pay it, so why flirt with the likelihood that people will find alternatives if the price exceeds their budget...