Here comes 2012 - Collapse of Dollar and Skyrocketing Oil Prices in 2012?

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by Mvector, Dec 31, 2011.

  1. Mvector

    Mvector

    It seems this may be the year we will lose reserve world currency status - if this happens 2012 will be nasty in the US.

    What are your thoughts for 2012 in the US?
     
  2. Been hearing this prediction for thirty plus years. One day, it will be "right".

    It happens when it happens...
     
  3. Mvector

    Mvector

    I agree - I think 2012 - I am making my call for this year - and I am ready for it if it happens. :)
     
  4. Really? I think the breakup of the Eurozone is much more likely than this. Treasuries haven't indicated anything like that, and if negative real interest rates don't deter people from buying, then I don't know of any other currency whose country comprises 20% of global GDP that we will ever lose our reserve status. The world would be coming to an end then, but you still must have adequate dollar reserves if you expect to be able to compete against us or buy anything for that matter.

    Fat chance on that, Mvector.

    Even as long as we are at least 10% of Global GDP it still won't happen, so make your bets on other forex markets but betting against the dollar is a bad deal, here, if you ask me. Betting more hyperinflation in Europe leads to deflation, so voting no-confidence on Euros seems easier than betting against the Almighty, King Dollar!
     
  5. Mvector

    Mvector

    I think EU and Euro will of course have severe problems too, but it will only take one event to trigger a currency breakdown in 2012. The US debt mathematics and geopolitical set ups have us right on the edge - one little shove and dollar could drop 20% to 30% of value in no time. I see some event triggering dollar breakdown this year - just my thoughts.
     
  6. trendy

    trendy


    And just what currency do you think the rest of the world is going to flock to?
     
  7. When debt-to-GDP >130-140%. That's in three to four years. Not 2012.
     
  8. Mvector

    Mvector

    That is a good question - if bank runs start hitting EU zone and US right after any economic event, where would you rush to move your cash?

    Of those I know with 500K liquid wealth or more, they are already moving and converting cash to Brazil, South Africa, and some in Canadian - this is in addition to any gold or silver coin holdings. I like the move to Brazil or South African cash but I am not so sure about Canadian dollars. Oil price increasing would help Canadian dollar but they may be too close to the mess - hard to say.
     
  9. Mvector

    Mvector

    Debt to GDP ratio is not the only controling factor for US losing world reserve currency status. For instance, attack on iran will have china actively doing anything they can to hurt US dollar strength in the world - they have huge direct oil deals with iran that were set up a few years before 9/11.
     
  10. I see dollar rallying 20 to 30% this year with the US dollar index hitting 100 by mid-year.
     
    #10     Jan 2, 2012