Herbalife (HLF) Exposed!

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by lwlee, Dec 21, 2012.

  1. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Here is a quote from Seekingalpha's comment section:

    "I am in the legal field and am interested in the legal pyramid allegations. From a strictly legal point of view I do NOT believe Ackman will succeed as using the FTC definition I do not think this can be classified as a pyramid scheme. However, I do believe that HLF will eventually run out of customers, a point you outlined very well. Though I did find it interesting that HLF keeps having a net positive in distributors/customers every year as you showed. Are they running out of countries to pull from? Possibly..."

    "I have ready Ackman's presentation in it's entirety. It simply won't meet the legal definition.If this ever went to Court all that would happen would be the Court would say that distributors buying themselves MUST count as retail sales as the sales are bought directly from the company and are for retail product, not for getting other members. Once that happens, they will easily meet the 50.1% minimum sales necessary to not be considered a pyramid. There are different types of pyramid schemes, and not all of them are illegal. The type Ackman would need to prove simply won't be up to the legal standard. However, the argument that they are going to run out of customers is an entirely different and better argument against HLF on it's own."

    This is a lawyer talking....

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1105911-herbalife-headscratchers
     
    #71     Jan 11, 2013
  2. Ackman's ass is toast. He's about to get wiped out because I feel the "mother" (Saddam Hussein parlance) of all short squeezes coming down the pike. This will be epic to watch.
     
    #72     Jan 11, 2013
  3. zdreg

    zdreg

    'This will be epic to watch."
    if true this will be an epic to participate in.
     
    #73     Jan 11, 2013
  4. Two things.
    1. How do you know he hasn't already pocketed some serious cashola from this trade?
    2. Dead cat bounce? Who knows?
     
    #74     Jan 14, 2013
  5. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    I think it's all the traders who shorted after him who got squeezed. I bet his borrow is secure. Certainly he has the warewithal to handle $20MM/point as it's still below his cost basis.
     
    #75     Jan 14, 2013
  6. lwlee

    lwlee

    It's popping today. Up 8.7%. Wonder if Ackman might be unloading some shares. By now, he probably has hedged.

    Anyone shorting now has some real balls!
     
    #76     Jan 14, 2013
  7. But has he even made a profit? Thats the question.

    With the cost of hedge, borrow etc..
     
    #77     Jan 14, 2013
  8. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Technically speaking HLF can reach 46-47$ before a pullback. Bollinger and such on the daily chart....

    From Seekingalpha:

    "Since the stock pays a 3.2% dividend, Mr. Ackman will have to shell out $32 million a year to cover the dividend on his short stock. "
     
    #78     Jan 14, 2013
  9. doubled shorts at $43,o5 in herbaldeath, will average in once again if needed-- $20 is in the books for this one. surf
     
    #79     Jan 14, 2013
  10. lwlee

    lwlee

    Ballsy move, surf. I think Ackman's average cost is around $50, tho I've read it could be higher like $60. Personally I think it's gonna go to $50 or higher. Stock have a way of testing shorts, especially massive ones like Ackman.

    There are a number of catalysts that could generate a big squeeze.
    - HLF doing a big share buyback.
    - Ackman reducing his position as it gets closer to his break-even.
    - more buyers piling in as they smell blood (Ackman's blood).
    - HLF earnings are very good.

    What does Ackman have on his side? SEC's investigation may take a long time.

     
    #80     Jan 14, 2013