Herbalife (HLF) Exposed!

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by lwlee, Dec 21, 2012.

  1. "The use of options limits risk"

    CNBC would have a better shot at a successful moon landing than getting the trade right. Icahn is holding a synthetic, so essentially a delta1 product. He's long spot.
     
    #201     Feb 16, 2013
  2. i agree with staying away from headline stocks.. and CNBC... talking heads.. back to research...
     
    #202     Feb 16, 2013
  3. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    he's paying a ten percent premium for this luxury. I don't think that's the case.
     
    #203     Feb 16, 2013
  4. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    Yes that's true. The more important issue is that the puts are cash settled. It is dumb to have an American cash settled option unless the goal is to "force a trade." There's no real exercising in a European option. It just settles to the max(k-s,0)
     
    #204     Feb 16, 2013
  5. ok,you know more about it, I'm just talking about the may options, he claimed on the phone his intentions were to excercise in 30 days

    on Bloomberg, a guy who runs a website called 13d something said there is no doubt he will excercise in about 30 days

    nobody talked about the purpose or function of the jan 2015 europeans

    that's over my head
     
    #205     Feb 17, 2013
  6. whatever you know in this particular case will not help you.. ultimately you can not know what their true intentions are..

    it would be surprising to me that the stock goes up for a while.. ackman holds.. Carl makes a killing dumps, and Ackman rides it down after... and they laugh at the cnbc'ers all the way to the bank..

    i think there is a sort of "sensationalism" attraction that is just bad all together for a trader in stuff like this.. emotional ride.. nothing resembling quantitative trading..
     
    #206     Feb 17, 2013
  7. hey caveman, I'm not trying to make money off this one, that's way out of my league, it's just for entertainment and educational purposes

    but you bring up a good point

    what does the conservative investor that's caught long in the middle do?

    I think they said Fidelity is the largest long holder
     
    #207     Feb 17, 2013
  8. Carl Icahn filed a 13D disclosing a ~13% synthetic stake in Herbalife.

    There are three possible reasons that Carl Icahn might want to own half a billion dollars worth of Herbalife stock:

    1) as a value investment in a company with strong cash flows and a beaten-up stock price.

    2) as a toehold in preparation for launching a tender offer to take the company private.

    3) to fuck with Bill Ackman.



    forget the first 2 reasons and keep the third.
     
    #208     Feb 17, 2013
  9. I think everybody knows it is reason number three

    but I don't know where you get this "half a billion dollars."

    Like he said, 'If everything goes to hell I'll lose 11 milliom, minus what I can get from the options."
     
    #209     Feb 17, 2013
  10. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    #210     Feb 17, 2013