Help with sizing using probabilities (I suck)

Discussion in 'Trading' started by nooby_mcnoob, Nov 11, 2019.

Is nooby_mcnoob stupid

Poll closed Nov 18, 2019.
  1. Yes

    3 vote(s)
    100.0%
  2. Yess

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. Specterx

    Specterx

    This is IMO the best approach. The goal of my money management is to ensure my max DD target has a very low (<5% per year) probability of being exceeded. Hit rate is pretty much all that matters here, because noteworthy drawdowns by definition occur when you are having long streaks of consecutive losers.

    I will double the bet size a couple of times a year when a fat pitch comes along, where market action, sentiment, and fundamentals all line up perfectly and the payoff is highly skewed.
     
    #11     Nov 11, 2019
    comagnum likes this.
  2. Amahrix

    Amahrix

    Hi nooby_mcnoob,

    Kelly Criterion.

    Ask me if you have any questions after doing some further research. (assuming you've never heard of it).

    -A
     
    #12     Nov 11, 2019
  3. Thanks, this is what I'm going to do. I know GAT has some stuff in his book as well, I should open it back up.
     
    #13     Nov 12, 2019
  4. Amahrix

    Amahrix

    Hello!

    Who is GAT?

    Also, check books by Ed Thorpe. He is well-known for major success with this method of betting, in casinos & markets.

    -A
     
    #14     Nov 12, 2019
    nooby_mcnoob likes this.
  5. tommcginnis

    tommcginnis

    Y'mean Mr. Gutless Dooshbagio (whose consumption of protein shakes, steroids and stimulants still can't help him find his shriveled testicles with both hands, self-loathing -- like self-stimulation -- takes two hands) showed up? Did Nutless make more statistical errors, or failure-to-read-before-hitting-Send errors, or simply conflate being an asshole with having something to say errors? That would be an (mildly) interesting study... But then, it would have to be published with his name, and we're back to gutlessness. Ah, well...
     
    #15     Nov 12, 2019