Help with probability calculator

Discussion in 'Options' started by evenkeel, Dec 16, 2012.

  1. evenkeel

    evenkeel

    If someone could please help with the following:

    underlying is $100
    Expiration Jan 14
    Enter custom Annual Implied vola as 50%
    then 1 stdev is 50% x $100 = $50.

    Why is Tradeking IVolatility probability calculator showing

    1) plus 1 stdev price as $148.44 and minus 1 stdev price as $52.25. Should not 1 stdev price range be from $50 to $150?

    2) Plus/minus 1 stdev is $52.25 and $148.44?
    Why is it showing the probability of touching these as 46.26% and 22.72%. Should not the probability of touching these prices be roughly equivalent, i.e. approx 68%/2 = 34%?

    Thanks.