Hello, I'll make it simple and fast. If I were to hold NQ / YM futures for 50-100 points profit target for the whole day, what should I be looking at? My stop will be half, so 2:1 ratio. Previous day's close, high of the day, low of the day, current support/resistance, opening bell move, current / day's planned news. What else? Thank you.
Hello, I don't know if I'm the right person to give any advice, but I think it's impossible to just set a random target level and hold the whole day in hopes of reaching it. The levels you've mentioned is considered an "area of interest" where some like to watch for clues for the next leg to happen. I suppose some aggressive traders may just leave limit orders there. With the recent volatility, I suppose 50-100 points for NQ/YM is certainly reachable but I think most rely on either price action or statistics related to the product along with the mentioned levels to enter the market.
I had an idea similar , buying at the beginning of the day and then holding until the end of day with a stop based on some volatility measure . the problem with a lot of these strategies is the're VERY levered with something like /RTY i think it can work
The problem with this is that you have to be able to pick the bottom (or top if short) for the whole day. And now with the new (old) volatility since beginning of February, this can be a dicey situation with the range you are describing. It's all about timing. As an example, I have been sitting out for a while to try to get a feel for the markets since the volatility spike. Today I finally went back in on what looked like a calm settling of YM after it had dropped 100 points about 2 hours ago. Long at about 24,050. Just 5 minutes later at about 15:10 ET, the shit hit the fan again and it dropped 300 points from my entry. When it came back to about 23,880 or so I bailed for a ~$850 loss. But look at the ranges today on YM/NQ. They are nuts in comparison to the more solemn days. Also, don't forget. Per contract, a 50-100 point target in YM is $250-$500. A 50-100 point target in NQ is $1,000-$2,000. To the meat of your question, I think pure TA has been blown out of the water since February. The equity futures have only one TA favorite that is holding true...The 200 SMA. The rest isn't holding up I reckon'. These are fundamental movers and shakers we be seeing now, and they are powerful. More powerful than these simple ideas of wedges, H&S and trend-channel breaks. Equities seem to have moved into the foundation territory. TA seems to be dead in this current volatility. HoD, LoD, opening bell, current day's news? It used to be the TA tortoise driving the price action. Looks now that it is the fundamental hare/jackrabbit. And boy, when it kicks, it kicks hard!
I agree with ON with regard to all day holds. You only get a handful of pure trend days a month which is why most days I take both longs and shorts. I disagree however on TA. All I know is charts with my tried and true studies and this is the best trading environment for the ES that I can recall...and I've been trading it since 2003. Although, we may have different views on what constitutes TA as opposed to PA.
I would concur with you on the agreement about ES being "the best trading environment" since 2003 because of the strong moves now. In pure TA terms, the ES took months to form simple patterns. Now it is taking way less time to form those same patterns which is why you are seeing such great returns in shorter amounts of time, yes? That is what I figure. The other thing I wish to note in this discussion is that for all the machinations of the markets, the three main equity indices seem to move in the same tick/dollar amount, with minor variation. If the YM moves up or down $2,000 in value, so does the ES, and to a degree, the NQ. The NQ has been a bit more boisterous there, but it is a definite pattern. So depending on how much capital you have in the account, you could hold a single ES for $1,000 of movement, or 1 YM for same ~$1,500 movement with similar margin but twice the stop. I am still an equity newb and am only calling it as I see it.
If you are going to trade like that check out The Taylor Trading Technique by George Douglas Taylor. He discusses a 3 day cycle with rules on how to trade each day of the cycle.
why did you think it had calmed down around 24050? It was one bear bar after the other. Very tight channel down. Gaps down. Urgency. Two weak pb’s. I see pa as extremely bearish at your entry. I don’t quite understand why you went long at 24050. Care to explain?
Need to correct myself there, it was 24,020. I saw what looked like a new cycle of higher-highs and higher-lows forming after a relatively slowish run of lower-highs and lower-lows. Seen the pattern a million times and acted upon it. I was weary and made a bad call without consulting larger charts. Sure it had been making new daily lows most of the day but it seemed it would bounce there. The "smart money" decided in the last hour no bounce and pushed it even lower, so decided to not let it hit the 200 point stop and bailed early. Ahh the joys of specerlating.