help with futures Vs. ETFs

Discussion in 'ETFs' started by dac8555, Dec 8, 2005.

  1. dac8555


    Fo those of you who trade stocks, etfs, commodities, futures...I am in the middle of a big strategy change.

    i am completely revising my money management structure, as well as what i trade.

    Before i was trading individual stocks...and they are just squirrley as hell. I would get jigged out of positions all the itme...and i have been losing money. down about 15% on the year. all of the the last few months.

    I would like to switch to something that TRENDS much better as my new system will be based on more predictable long term moves versus these small companies that are allover the place.

    I would like to trade ETFS on things like gold, oil, Russ 2000, gold....esentially 5 or 6 different products that are completely unrelated (turtle style). I was not diversified enough before.

    do thse trend well enough when compared to futures? would it be better to trade a brent contract versus an oil ETF?

    one restriction i have is My firewall at work...i cant use Interactive Brokers. Right now i am using Ameritrade.

    thanks for your input.
  2. Be careful today, Tom Cole is on the loose. If you ask the wrong question, he may ruin your holiday. Good day.
  3. Pabst


    It sounds as if ETF's are the best vehicle for your needs. They have virtual 100% correlation to their underlying asset classes (as do futures contracts), they can be traded in smaller contract sizes than futures allowing you grater flexibility in setting appropriate weightings and can be traded without compromise of your employers firewall.
  4. Most crap out there just doesn't trend the way things used to trend 5-10-20 years ago. There are still some trending issues/indexes which "trended" in the past until now, but as with everything, the future remains to be seen. The "edges" out there have been shrinking considerably. It also depends on your time frame (intra-day, end of day), capital to employ, how many strategies you can use simultaneously, since market nowadays is a lot more random, you need to take luck out of the equation by diversifying across multiple asset classes, equities, systems, time frames, etc. This of course, ties up a considerable amount of time and money. Otherwise, just daytrade!
  5. Pabst


    No offense but are you kidding?

    The short dollar trade from 2001-2004 didn't trend to the tune of $50,000 per EuroFx contract? And then straight down 20pts this year? NQ doubling since '03 without anything more than a few 10% corrections isn't a great trend? Crude tripling in a year wasn't a solid trend? Metals haven't trended? If anything it's the compacted over arbed daytrade edges/opportunities that have disappeared.
  6. Isn't that what I was saying? When you look at a chart, yes there *appears* to have been some trends but trading them in a profitable manner is a *lot* more difficult than ever.

  7. Pabst


    Sorry if I mis-understood. I couldn't agree more with your statement below. :)