OK, I've been reading indications of beginners thinking that if they just follow some magic technical formula somehow, they'll know when to enter and exit trades. I'm referring to Fibs and all the rest being talked about here. Bro, do you REALLY think there is ANYTHING that will show you where the price will be in the next tic? All those who used and trusted in such indicators NEVER saw the recent EUR/USD 16-cent climb coming. In fact, they didn't even see it when they were IN it! George Soros, who probably knows more about trading currencies than beginners do, said something I quoted in the "Ouch!" thread. Basically, right before the 1600-point climb he said he did NOT see "any major moves coming for the USD." Can you imagine? Here's a guy that is probably wired with every indicator on earth. Who has access to all the brightest minds inside and outside his organization. Not one analyst, not one economist, not one currency strategist at a ANY big bank saw that move coming. And they ALL use the indicators mentioned in this thread. More than that, no one even began to say the rate MAY move higher until it was well over 1.3000. I know because I traded the EUR/USD pair in the opposite direction tic by tic all the way up (and all the way down). I read every single news story that came out. Every analyst and economist and big bank head currency trader's report. It was not until past 1.3100 that some guys, just to see their name quoted, started making wild fantasy remarks by going on record stating that the euro is "headed to 1.45 for sure!" The entire market, above 1.3500, got in such a frenzied panic they threw all their money LONG EUR/USD and the rate FLEW up to 1.3665, where just then, all the guys who had "predicted" the rate climb after the market reached 1.3500 started puffing out their chests and committing even MORE money to the manic climb, the market CRASHED 600-points, then CRASHED another 300-points. The move wiped out entire hedge funds. Everyone was then saying to "buy euro on dips!!!!" Yeah, right, on "dips" as the whole market continued imploding down to sub-1.2600, well over 1000-pips from the high of 1.3665. Moral of the story is, newbies should not be getting so trusting in these common indicators. The forex simply is an indicator of what goes on in the world. And if you really think world events are so laid out in a plain, simple and predictable fashion... then get ready to lose your money just like the majority of those do who use and trust in stupid indicators that are straight out of The Wizard of Oz. sKaLpZ
The bottom line is very simple. You open a trade and close it when it goes into your favor. How you do that, or how often you do that is up to you. You have to know how to deal with drawdowns. You have to know how to successfully manage drawdowns. Most people who think they are "forex traders" or "investors" simply kill their trade using a "Stop Loss." Then they line up with all their indicators awaiting the next entry signal. Then they kill THAT trade and so on and so on. It's ridiculous. You got to figure out a more successful trading system than just to commit financial suicide time after time after time while calling yourself a "forex trader." Remember that, 99.99% of guys who use their trusty indicators and stop losses end up getting bagged in the forex: and giving ME all their money. I hope you're reading this, Bill and Warren. Here's a brilliant quote: "It's been a fairly speedy move up in the dollar,'' said Ian Gunner, head of currency strategy in London at Mellon Financial Corp., which manages about $729 billion. "You'd expect to see some check in this move soon.'' [source] The truth is, this guy probably knows less about currency trading than you do. He knows where the USD is headed about as much as your local postlady. ALL the trading done by these guys is based on pure guess work. They got to do SOMETHING to look busy while sitting at their expensive trading stations so they sit there pressing buy and sell and close buttons all day long while guys like Gunner walk around in $2,500 suits barking out orders. But that's about where all their great currency trading knowledge ends. "A technical chart suggested the dollar's rally may wane. The U.S. currency's 14-day relative strength index against the euro was 26.08, the lowest since Feb. 8. The index is a gauge of momentum in a given period, and a level above 70 or below 30 signals a change in direction." This is so much BS, Soupy Sales could have done a lot better! Coinz
Coinz, Board veterans say you're a shill for a FX dealer. True? Shill, defined: "a decoy who acts as an enthusiastic customer in order to stimulate the participation of others."
Well, take a look at this old thread here to see what you're getting into: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=36186&perpage=6&pagenumber=1 He has several associates who also seem to have lots of free time for wordy journals -- whether they are actually about trading is a good question, decide for yourself. Or just ask magna why he was banned in the first place.
No. The only "participation" I attempt to "stimulate" is in general forex trading. Read my journal. I also participate in thread conversations. I guess that's a bannable offense, no? *busts up laughing* Anyway, this thread was started by JoeyTheBull to get help trading forex. I think Illiquid should stop flaming this thread by making more crazy and unfounded accusations against me. We should have Joey say if he thinks I am a "shill" or just trying to help others learn forex trading in general. Joey? fx
paper trading doesn't work. i have talked with a lot of people that have paper traded and it misses one very important part of your trading plan...the psychology. most people react totally different when they are in the game with real money on the line.
That was a good journal! Thanks for digging that link up. I think I'll post it on my current journal. It was a riot! Well, I guess now we know who the "board veterans" are. "He has several associates who also seem to have lots of free time for wordy journals." Correct, half the journals on ET are written by my "associates." It is a conspiracy by journal writing. Sounds like you have message board paranoia. LMAO, Sam ps: I find it a little suspicious that Illiquid openly spams Elite Trader by re-directing ET members to his OWN SITE http://tradingthoughts.blogspot.com then accuses ME of being a "shill."
I'm just trying to save someone who would have honest questions about forex trading some time and grief, given how you responded in the past to our inquiries -- you can just put me on ignore if you like. And when you figure out what I am trying to sell on my blog, please let me know -- I think I'd probably be entitled to a discount.
And when you figure out which FX dealers/brokers I am supposedly trying to "shill" do me a favor - post it all over Hell IN BRIGHT RED LETTERS. But stop flaming me, and Joey's thread who is simply asking for help. I appreciate your trying to "save the world of beginner traders" from my evil clutches but if you actually KNEW anything about trading forex maybe you then could give someone some practical advice and at least try to do something on ET other than flaming members (of whom I am one, btw). Put you on ignore? Don't flatter yourself. Nah, I laugh too hard at your lame attempts to get me banned! Now, excuse me, I have to get back to trading in the real world. Keep spamming! Coinz