The Volman and Brooks books are all about the concepts. Take the concepts and apply them to the bar interval (often called "time frame") that works best for your trading style (micro scalp like Volman, day trade, swing trade) and create a plan based on ideas, testing, research and rules. Volman's 70-tick chart is a superb approximation of the 1-min CL chart during the Nymex pit session and when I read his book I realized that I was already trading that way for the most part, using the 5-min chart as my main signal/trigger chart. I never actually draw the boxes, but my mind's eye creates them as I see the consolidation setting up. I do draw lines across swing points because I don't want to accidentally enter a trade right into that wall of chart resistance. My entry depends on airspace as much as the setup (pattern) itself. A setup can be the most beautiful piece of price action I've ever encountered, but if there's less than 6 ticks of airspace to a supply/demand zone (as indicated by a line across key swing points), CL doesn't allow me the room or time to "escape" without a loss if the level holds. Can you post a chart showing lots of places to put the Volman boxes so as to make it seem random to you?
Definitely the concepts I'm applying, and I do like the idea of the box that is used for over half of the setup, but the box is just so random. Look at my posted picture. Just a quick flip through the book. As the bars are forming, before we even get to his box, I see that this box could work as outlined in red. My box is just a little bigger so you can see the tops of the bars, but it looks like there are 6 touches of bars with the top of the box. Granted, the bars aren't exactly squeezed out by the 20EMA, but price certainly looks like its shooting out of the box. And who cares if this one trade doesn't work since we are trading from a higher statistical probability based on many trades with the same price action. But in this one example, the box that i drew looks just as good as his box. I'm of course not saying Volman is wrong, just that the boxes can be drawn all over the place, at least from my humble opinion. I'm more used to looking at 5 min charts so these small time frame charts certainly are different, or maybe its the fact that its forex, although price action should of course apply to all financial instruments. So in real time, I am afraid that I would be drawing boxes all over the place in my head and that would certainly lead to over trading.
Now I should also add that in the chart I posted from the book, going long might not be a good idea here since the bars above 17:00 have formed a top and hence that could be resistance for my trade to work out if I took it long going out of my box, ie. not enough room to make a profit in case it ends up being a double top. So I have learned lots from the book and making sure you have enough room to your target, as you have also mentioned in your reply, is important. But these boxes can be drawn all over the place when you are just looking for the same tops and bottoms of bars!!!!!!
The box you drew in red makes no sense because no trend has yet asserted itself. I see a low to the left that hasn't even been tested yet. Volman's all about trading in the direction of a defined trend. The second box makes sense because price is now clearly trending down and broke out of that consolidation that hadn't yet broke an earlier low. Of course, even with setups that fulfill the with-trend criteria, some trades will be losers. But the odds of winning trades are favorable when you trade the setups in proper context.
I don't now what the average is, because it varies so much from day to day. I do know that 20-30 ticks would be a very weak day (narrow range choppy days) and trend days tend to produce 150 ticks or more.
Will we ever see an audited statement backing up these boasts of taking millions per year out of the oil futures market? Sure, 20 ticks on a bad day, 150 ticks on a good day, no losses. Anyone numerate with even a casual familiarity with futures markets would immediately grasp that you are claiming minimum $50k net profit per contract per year. You still have time to post on ET some 9,000 times! And you really want to help others take your trades, so there is less profit for you? And all from someone lacking basic mathematics knowledge. Sure, there are people putting up mid 7 figures for their own accounts, but getting there requires so much creativity, intelligence, time, and hard work that I doubt that any such successful folks are inclined to post at ET on average 5 times a day for five years! And fewer still who want to create competition by disclosing exactly how they trade... Why are some people so insecure that they find their self esteem in unearned admiration from the gullible? Or are there pecuniary advantages to being an Internet trading guru? Only on ET: where those who need to believe meet those who need to pretend.
I expect to flirt with the seven-figures mark this year across all accounts I trade for futures, and I'll tell you exactly how CL will play a big part in that... Work two semi-correlated charts such as 500-volume and 100-tick (or any similar combination) in tandem. Mark the pertinent S/R zones on each, invariably the action zones will differ by 10 - 40 cents depending on price action. Trade one position short or long at the first sequence confirmed, set stop and wait. If stopped out for loss, repeat the entry process. If price moves in favor thru next action zone, add a second trade and move stop on first to entry/par for no risk there. Two-position leverage in favor, one position risk on blended stops. Eventually, way more often than not, you will be in a bigger move for two-contract entry than the smaller stops from one-contract entry. Right with twice the size for bigger distance in favor, wrong on half the size for smaller distance against. Catch one move per day, shut down when acceptably profitable, ignore all else in the charts until next session. Losing days are infrequent, profitable days are equal size to greater size than infrequent net-loss days. Trading is really that simple. Traders are the real problem that make trading seem so complex
Blotto, I seldom post here, but I could not let this go unanswered. NoDoji is a real person with skills(including mathematical) unmatched by any I have seen. She is both talented and selfless. She gives back to ET because many before her gave to her so freely. Just because she posts frequently and helps others freely means only to me she is a generous and kind soul. Those who help others are generally high on my list of people to know, admire, and emulate. I can assure you that your time would be better spent testing and backtesting some of her ideas because if you choose to become a trader, there is all you need to learn given in her generous instructions. And as Henry David Thoreau said: "It's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see." Maybe you cannot really see what she is saying when you read her material. I can tell you I see it much differently than you. And I am grateful for everything she has posted. It has really helped me. May you be blessed one day with the kindness and wisdom she possesses. Wolf