Josh seems to be taking a breather, he made a lot of money and not much in a hurry to risk significant capital I was listening to that interview last night! Great stuff, and yea, the macro looks like shit right now, Microsoft laying off across the board, tech sector is not very good, lots of stories of people unable to land a job, middle class is squeezed by inflation and wages that haven't kept up for a long time, student loan collection going to start again soon, foreclosures creeping up, the economic concerns are very high, I'll have to review it, did not finish the video, but one thing that stuck with me is that he doesn't see any Fiscal solutions, which goes against Lyn Alden nothing stops this train, I'm in Asia but still communicate regularly with families and friends in the US and yea, things are just not the same from before Covid and getting worse, here locally I don't see a slowdown but I don't have much historical data since only been here for a couple of years But bitcoin, shit there is an avalanche of demand, global adoption of public companies announcing a bitcoin treasury strategy of sort... I just cannot be bearish on bitcoin, I would not want to be out of bitcoin and it shoots up to $120-150k+ even during this summer doldrums period I will take my chances with bitcoin and mstr, just my 2 sats PS: Different video I was talking about, lol, same interviewer but David Rosenberg was the guest
I do agree with this, and even Chris the guest said his target was I think $135k or so. After that, who really knows. You of course don't want to be underexposed when over some random weekend, there is a major announcement about some critical change to how the world works. Perhaps the only way to roll the $9T of debt that is due this year will be to do a bitcoin backed bond. Government can't afford the interest payments to sell these bonds at 4-5% (and the rates clearly aren't coming down), and having the FED buy them is also not a solution. Foreign central banks haven't been interested in buying them for years either. So perhaps the bitcoin backed bond is the best solution, which also means they can get away with a very low interest rate, and use bitcoin with a 1-2% backing as a way to get the low payable fiat yield. Of course with an announcement like this, Bitcoin goes to the moon, so that is what you don't want to miss. But I also don't want to ignore the lack of bitcoin price appreciation during historic accumulation. I keep reading there is no retail buying right now, its all institutional demand. And if Saylor wasn't backing up the truck... where the heck would price be? I also know that the OGs can only sell once. So eventually, this supply slows down to a trickle, and then we can get some real moves. But a massive slowdown in the world economy as a backdrop will not be good, unless we also finally get a massive change in how we do money.
There's this massive gap between theoretical trading knowledge and the psychological reality of having real money on the line. Demo accounts can teach mechanics but completely miss the emotional component that dominates actual trading. It's why many new traders get frustrated when strategies that worked perfectly in demo suddenly 'fail' with real capital. The emotional discipline required for consistent execution is something that can only be developed through experience and, unfortunately, some painful lessons with real consequences.
I'm very happy that bitcoin is back above $100k, a month ago it was very depressing And that's a story in itself, just how fast bitcoin can move in either direction, and Saylor has talked about it that being out 11 days out of the year when bitcoin makes its parabolic move would mean missing out on the major gains I just finished listening to the video, he's not as bearish as David Rosenberge, lol, same channel, 1 day ago I will hold on even through the crash. it really do be like that sometimes PS: Josh is long 325's short 330's same amounts = fully hedged
Good catch... I'm such a newb with options. I just saw the calls, and didn't see the quanity side until you pointed it out. I even remember reading once about the benefits of being short a call, vs. buying a put, but don't remember the benefits this gives. Doesn't matter.... its way above my skill level.
It's a spread, Josh can still make money if mstr closes above $330 on expiration days $500 per contract, or $329 closing, would be $400 per contract... but $325 and below, his long 325's expire worthless Anything above $330, the 330's will get exercised and he'll be short 100 shares of mstr for every contract, but his 325's will get exercised as well, and will be long 100 shares for every contract, so the short mstr shares will be covered by the long mstr shares PS: this is also way above my skill level, I've never been short any option, not even a covered call or a naked put, I've only done long calls and puts If things work out and I am long enough shares of mstr, I plan to sell covered calls in the future...
I'd love to see it in the form of the PnL curve chart that dest used to post. ... Its nice to visualize where the max gain is, where the limit to the downside is.