wow, folks will really stretch definitions and truth when it comes to defending the dead art of TA. the religious type fanaticism to defend something that simply doesn't work is weird. i am amazed and dismayed by this. surf PS-- may i suggest this to get you on the right planet anyway-- http://www.amazon.com/Innumeracy-Mathematical-Illiteracy-Its-Consequences/dp/0809058405
I think you appear to be working with the definition that anything that has is computed from price is t/a. In that case, everything is t/a. But that's not how the rest of the world sees it. Statistical analysis is derived from some first principal model of reality (right or wrong). It differs from TA in that t/a's first principal is a tautological 'everything is in the price'. This is not the first principal of statistical analysis.
Seems like most threads end up in a 'does TA work?' debate, kinda funny. Surf, as of late, you've been pretty adamant about your position on on the efficacy of TA. While I don't generally disagree with you in that I don't believe TA provides an edge in and of itself, I will disagree that it hasn't been/can't be examined. Andrew Lo did some research on chart patterns as long ago as 2000 (and he even found that TA was useful - WHAT!?). IMO, TA is about as useful (in terms of providing an edge) as most fundamental analysis, which is to say, not generally that useful. What it does do is provide a framework for risk management and allows people to enter trades. Gotta go on something, I personally like my magic 8 ball.
I don't completely disagree with you. Yes, after a trade is entered, TA is one method to frame risk management ( but the value is dubious) , regardless prior to entry, it has very limited value as you agree---- surf
Three topics are included in this statement: statistics charts, and TA. Most people start out by looking at things. It takes about 40 hours to get all of the scope and bounding done to have a system of how the market works. From that point on there is a chioce made to find out how to make money. You either collect data and process it statistically OR you code up the operation of the market. Quants do stats. Scientists do codes. I have quant training (about a PhD equivalent) since it was a job asset at IBM when I worked there. At IBM it was used for culling talent using third party judged (Quant instructors(ADJ Profs) graded our work). Most people have figured out that capturing price change during trends makes money. This is the standard of performance for people who test performance of systems of making money. In TA there are events in trends. For price 10 are observable and 11 are observable in volume. Any one can draw these out on two separate sheets of paper. End Effects of trends occur twice in a trend: at the beginning and at the end. There are 35 such unique End Effects. To make money using TA, a person monitors and analyzes the combinations and permutations of 21 price and volume events. When one of these does not occur, then the elements of the End Effects are examined and you find the one that qualifies. I divided the 35 elements into 11 subsets; the largest two contain 14 and 8 elements, respectively. The remaining 9 subsets contain 13 elements collectively. All 11 volume elements are coded. All 10 price elements are coded. All elements of the 11 subsets are coded and grouped within each subset for clarity. To assemble the system of these things several mathematical tools are used; they include, criteria, filters, formulae, rules, and strategies. All together they form assorted libraries which are dedicated to the overall algorithm, and the applications of the algorithms to specific markets for taking the full offer of the market. I have met a lot of people who are very skilled. I know when I am talking to a skilled and knowledgeable scientist, coder and trader. Also, I have met a lot of venders, salesmen and writers who make money as parasites. I know what these people are when I talk with them. Money is made in markets in one of two direct ways: trading or providing services for fees to people who cannot trade. Indirectly, people make money providing technical services and trading platforms. an induced form of income may be attained by providing substantive information or by providing stories about market myths. There is a spectrum of buyers. Lastly, there is an econometric substition effect whereby people and money is siphoned off into other money making fields that compete with the direct, indirect, and induced money making. If anyone has a question about any one element of the market among the 56 descrete elemts, I will explain it in spades as an example of what is what. So far all posters in this thread are posting heresay which is of little value, if any. It is important, once in a while in ET, to post a substantive comment that has verifyable information about markets and their system of operation. All elements of markets have a common connection. I, purposefully, did not define it with specificity in scientific jargon.
that is a bullshit comment. how am I stretching the truth? I know a guy in la jolla who has one of the oldest computer t/a programs being offered on the market. since 1981. his t/a programs were using stats on the market before you buddies had hedge funds. but lets start with something simple. what is a bollinger band?
wrong link, sorry http://www.amazon.com/Innumeracy-Mathematical-Illiteracy-Its-Consequences/dp/0809058405
what an emotional cheap shot. your talking to a guy who was sent to take college math courses when he was 12. (I had the ability to do math on a ledger in my mind as a kid)
This is an incorrect planet. In markets, there are measures. Your reference is to an incorrect measure. To code and create automated complete market trading systems to take the full offer of the market, the system has to be able to measure correctly. Once an algorithm of the market's operation is created, then the parametric measures of the algorithm must be used. If you know anyone with children ask one of the children what they were taught about parametric measures. Then ask questions so they can explain to you what you do not understand. To start out with, numbers only express part of a value. You number coins with two numbers: heads and tails. you have never found out what a head or a tail means in a system of any kind. You have never found out that flipping a coin has to be done in a context. Coins are used in systems. You are just a flipper so far. Nada. Markets operate in systems.
ok, it wasn't meant to be a cheap shot directed at you, just at TA users who equate looking at charts with statistics--that's a dangerous path and its caused by the factors listed in the book I linked. surf