. October 20, 2008 SouthAmerica: I started this thread almost 3 years ago, in January 2006, and many members who participates on this forum today never had a chance to read this information, but itâs worth reading this information once again, as a matter of fact there are a lot of interesting information in some postings on this thread. Just keep in mind this information was posted on this forum 3 years ago when everything looked wonderful and the sky was the limit in Wall Street. ******* January 9, 2006 SouthAmerica: Regarding the current state of the United States financial markets and the number of hedge funds that are going out business and being terminated - a book published in 2003 comes to mind: "After the Empire - The Breakdown of the American Order" by Emmanuel Todd (Columbia University Press - February 2004), this book was a best seller in Europe in 2003. Among a number of interesting facts that he mentions on his book; Mr. Todd wrote: âWall Street, where the leading indexes seem now to directly influence the trend of markets worldwide (up yesterday, down today), has become the endpoint of this security seeking mechanism â 3,059 billion dollars invested in US markets in 1990 - 13,451 billion in 1998. But none of this has much to do with the notion of economic performance considered in terms of real, physical productivity â even if the mantra of ânew technologiesâ is a part of the process. This increase in stock market capitalization that is totally disproportionate to the real growth of the American economy is nothing more than a sort of inflation of the rich. The extraction of profits swells incomes that are then poured into the market where the relative scarcity of the âgoodsâ to be bought â stocks â produce increases in their nominal value. â¦And one must not forget the constant lowering of interest rates â now to practically zero â which means in a speculative economy the free distribution of currency. But if we agree that the American economy is weak when it comes to real, physical productivity, as the massive and still growing levels of imports of consumer goods would suggest, then one has to conclude that the capitalization of the American stock and bond markets is a fiction and therefore the money that is traveling to the United States is literally traveling to a mirage and not the true oasis that many take it for. â¦We cannot yet say whether the decline of the dollar that began in April of 2002 in the wake of the Enron-Andersen affair is just a small hiccup in the system or the beginning of the end. Nothing of the kind was either wished or planned, and surely the breakdown of the machine will be just as surprising as was its emergence.â *** SouthAmerica: How all this can add up to something that makes sense? Today I have the feeling that the US financial markets became a âFantasylandâ. This is just an over simplification of the entire mess â but do we have more investment funds than stock of companies available for investment? For all practical purposes: The New York Stock Exchange lists 2,800 companies. The Nasdaq lists 3,300 companies. For a total of 6,100 public traded companies that other mutual funds and hedge funds can invest on. There are 13,000 Mutual Funds and 11,362 Hedge Funds. For an estimated 24,362 investment types of companies chasing some kind of returns on their investments. Consider the following: Out of the 11,362 Hedge Funds â an industry not as regulated as the Mutual Funds industry â there are probably 10 percent or even more that are like a minefield hiding losses and manipulating the figures until they blow up like Refco and many others. There are many Refcoâs out there waiting to go of. There are many incompetent people among the people managing all these companies. And no one should be surprised to find out that there are a lot of greedy and unethical people among the people running these companies. Just look at the scandals we had in the last ten years and many of them involved billions of US dollars. Today the Hedge Fund industry is like a minefield with a number of time bombs ready and waiting to blow out at any time. And today many of the major American companies traded on the major exchanges â the way they are managed is nothing to right home about. *** 1) The New York Stock Exchange: NYSE-listed companies are among the worldâs best. They range from âblue-chipâ companies, to world-leaders in technology, to young, high-growth enterprises. They meet and adhere to the most stringent listing and governance requirements. New listings at the Exchange include transfers from other U.S. markets, initial public offerings, and cross-listing by non-U.S. companies listed on other global exchanges. In November 2005 the NYSE lists close to 2,800 companies. *** 2) Nasdaq: NASDAQ is the largest U.S. electronic stock market. With approximately 3,300 companies, it lists more companies and, on average, trades more shares per day than any other U.S. market. It is home to category-defining companies that are leaders across all areas of business including technology, retail, communications, financial services, transportation, media and biotechnology. NASDAQ is the primary market for trading NASDAQ-listed stocks. *** 3) Mutual Funds: Today âMorningstarâ provides information on more than 13,000 mutual funds. *** 4) Hedge Funds: The amount of money managed by funds that can be termed hedge funds passed the $1 trillion mark during 2004, according to the Alternative Fund Services Review â and the total number of funds has broken the 10,000 barrier, reaching the grand total of 11,362. The New York Times reported on January 7, 2006 that hedge funds assets have more than doubled, to $ 1.1 trillion dollars since 2000 â and hedge funds had an average return of 7.42 percent in 2005 through November. ********** Here is some info about Emmanuel Todd: Emmanuel Todd, a historian credited with predicting the downfall of the Soviet Union in the 1970s now says that the US has been on its way out for the last decade. Mr. Todd on his newest book "After the Empire." predicts the fall of the United States as the sole superpower (Columbia University Press - February 2004.) The power and influence of the United States is being overestimated, claims French historian and demographer Emmanuel Todd. "There will be no American Empire." "The world is too large and dynamic to be controlled by one power." According to Todd, whose 1976 book predicted the fall of the Soviet Union, there is no question: the decline of America the Superpower has already begun. Quoting Mr. Todd: "When I speak of the economy, then I mean the industrial core and the associated technological cutting edge, not the anemic New Economy. It is in the core industrial sphere that the US is falling dramatically behind. European investors lost billions in the US during the nineties, but the US economy lost an entire decade. As recently as 1990 the US was still exporting $35 billion more in advanced technology than it was importing. Now the balance of trade is negative even in this field. The US is far behind in mobile communications technology. The Finnish Nokia is four times the size of Motorola. More than half the communications satellites are being launched with European Ariane rockets. Airbus is about to surpass Boeing -- the most important transportation medium for personnel traffic in the modern global economy is about to be manufactured primarily in Europe. These are the things that are ultimately important. These are by far more vital and decisive factors than a war against Iraq. The US leadership doesn't know anymore where to turn. They know that they are monetarily dependant on the rest of the world, and they are afraid of becoming inconsequential. There are no more Nazis and Communists. While a demographic, democratic, and politically stabilizing world recognizes that it is increasingly less dependant on the US, America is discovering that it is increasingly dependant on the rest of the world. That is the reason for the rush into military action and adventures. It is classic. The only remaining superiority is military. This is classic for a crumbling system. The final glory is militarism. The fall of the Soviet Union took place in an identical context. Their economy was in decline, and their leadership grew fearful. Their military apparatus gained in size and stature and the Russians embarked on adventures to forget their economic shortcomings. The parallels in the US are obvious. As a historian, the dollar represents a "mentality indicator" to me. It reflects the awareness of international trade and business leaders of the realities of the American economy. The weakness of the dollar is indicative of their assessment that the situation is much worse than is openly acknowledged. One of the working propositions of my book, After the Empire is that the concept of military control of the globe no longer makes any sense. In relation to the military, there will be a balance of power in the future. There is still a nuclear balance of power between the US and Russia. The notion that sections of the globe can be controlled through military might is passé, because it is unrealistic. You can destroy regimes and bomb their infrastructure, as the Americans have done in Afghanistan, but the populations -- including those in the developing world -- have become educated and literate enough to eliminate any possibility of re-colonization. The only power that ultimately counts today is economic power. http://discussions.pbs.org/viewtopic.pbs?t=7000&highlight=emmanuel+todd .
July 25, 2012 SouthAmerica: Quoting from Emmanuel Todd's book: "The only remaining superiority is military. This is classic for a crumbling system. The final glory is militarism. The fall of the Soviet Union took place in an identical context. Their economy was in decline, and their leadership grew fearful. Their military apparatus gained in size and stature and the Russians embarked on adventures to forget their economic shortcomings. The parallels in the US are obvious." No wonder the US government is trigger happy: Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, drone strikes in many countries, Syria is the next prey, followed by Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the other countries in the Middles East - and then it will be South America's turn..... Here is a reality check to American military power: WAR CRIMES US soldiers speak I killed innocent civilians full documentary â July 22, 2012 <iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/pM_UwiNEtRc" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> .