Heat And Dryness Concern Is Valid ( Wednesday 05/30/2012 ).

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by kanellop, May 30, 2012.

  1. kanellop


    Hello to All.

    Exist the following News:

    http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com...&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc372e8fba01379f19439d0476 .


    Wednesday 05/30/2012

    Heat And Dryness Concern Is Valid

    Good article here from Purdue University agronomist Bob Nielsen on the adverse impact that the excessive heat and dryness can have on development of young corn plants. Concerns are indeed valid.--Bryce

    Twitter-- http://twitter.com/…

    Hot & Dry: Toll on Young Corn?

    Written by R.L. (Bob) Nielsen, Agronomy

    Department, Purdue University.

    Some of the local curmudgeons who gather every morning at the Chat 'n Chew Cafe over rolls and coffee have been raising questions about whether this year's record-setting early planted corn crop is as healthy as the government says it is. In addition to the spate of reports about seedling blight and replanting occurring throughout the state (Wise,2012), they worry about the possible effects of recent and pending hot and dry spells on the health of the young corn crop.

    While it is true that a field of young corn technically does not use a lot of water on a per acre basis every day, it nevertheless requires adequate soil moisture to support the initial development of the young plants' nodal (permanent) root systems in the early leaf stages of stand establishment. The success or failure of the initial development of a corn plant's nodal root system greatly influences the success or failure of the young corn plant in transitioning from "life support" (using kernel reserves) to relying on the developing nodal root system for "life support" (Nielsen, 2010a). This important transition period begins around the V3 stage of development (three visible leaf collars).

    Corn younger than V3, still relying on its kernel reserves, can look pretty darn good and uniform. However, if severe stresses limit the development of the first few nodal sets of permanent roots, then the plants will struggle or fail to complete the transition from reliance on kernel reserves to reliance on nodalroots. Examples of severe stress that can limit this initial root development include seedling disease, repeated defoliation events (e.g., frost, sandblasting), shallow soil compaction, corn rootworm injury, corn nematode injury, excessively wet surface soils, excessively dry surface soils, excessively cold surface soils, and excessively hot surface soils).

    Consequently, fields that were pleasing to the eye last week can turn ugly almost overnight if the young corn plants struggle through the important transition period.

    Side note: Severe stresses that injure the seed or mesocotyl prior to a successful transition to the nodal root "life support system" will kill or severely stunt a corn plant. The reason that seedling blight has been so devastating in recent weeks is the fact that the crop was young enough that it had not yet transitioned to full nodal root support and, thus, was vulnerable to damage to the mesocotyl or seed.

    The concern raised by the locals over at the corner table about the recent unusually warm temperatures and the forecast of more of the same is a valid one given the current stage of development of much of the state's corn crop. Approximately 76% of the state's corn crop is currently at leaf stage V5 or younger (my estimate). Maybe a third or more is V3 or younger (my estimate).

    Concerns over hot AND dry weather right now are similarly valid given that many fields have not yet successfully developed their initial set of nodal roots. Excessively hot and, more importantly, dry surface soils during this transition period can literally desiccate root tips and stop further elongation of young roots. Such stress over an extended time period can ultimately kill young corn plants (i.e., fatal drought stress) or result in the appearance of the "rootless" or "floppy" corn syndrome as the corn plants develop further (Nielsen, 2010b).

    Side note: The good news about a drier than normal April and May is that dry soils warm more quickly than do wet soils. In fields where the moisture deficit is not critical, the drier and warmer soils this spring have likely been conducive to deeper initial root development by the corn plants. Such deeper root development may pay dividends if the dry conditions turn into a true drought.

    The bottom line is that excessively warm weather, especially where soils are or will soon be excessively dry, may indeed tae a toll on the health and yield potential of young corn if the development of its permanent (nodal) root system has been compromised. Root development also compromised by shallow soil compaction, corn nematodes, anhydrous ammonia or starter fertilizer injury, or other severe below-ground stresses will only compound the continued stress due to excessive heat and dry soils.

    Pray for rain or turn on the irrigation.

    Posted at 1:54PM CDT 05/30/12 by Bryce Anderson


    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.
  2. =============
    Trader George/US/global cooling;
    well after a double check/chart on beans, wheat[any volume month contract] & especially corn.

    Looks like the market is exspecting global cooling/normal rainfall:D However having subscribed to Progressive Farmer for years; an amazing high %% of Pro Farmers believe in praying for rain.

    Futures Mag [JUNE,2012]has an average PRO Farmer 2011-12 av projected[not predicted price,LOL]of corn@ $6.30/bushel

    Av projected corn per bushel 2012-13 is $5.00[$4.75 for an excellant crop.Sara Lee, like most commercials likes her grain cheap
  3. kanellop


    Hello to All.

    I wish to have a Nice New Week as well.

    I am around here and thinking some things.

    In the meanwhile i have detect some interesting News,

    i believe.

    Here they are:


    http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com...&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc372e8fba0137a9cfb66404e8 .

    Friday 06/01/12

    Midwest Rainfall Comments

    Some thoughts on the much-anticipated rainfall event in the Midwest Wed-Thu May 30 & 31:

    First of all, indications were that significant rain--totals of 1 inch or more--were overall quite isolated in the western, central and eastern Midwest. Radar estimates featured pretty widespread amounts of .3-.8" from central Iowa east to Indiana with just a few stripes of heavier 1+" rainfall in northern Illinois, northern Indiana and southern Michigan. As an example of the difference in rainfall, Peoria and Springfield in central Illinois each had .87". Decatur logged .42". The Quad Cities area had around 1.02" and Chicago had over an inch. But in the central core of Illinois, showers amounted to moisture that is "get by for now" type precipitation, and not enough to end dryness concerns.

    And there are drought areas. The Midwest region, as outlined by this week's Drought Monitor, has 42 percent of the region in some type of drought category. That's a big, big difference from a year ago, when just 1 percent of the region was in some type of drought. (The Drought Monitor's Midwest region includes, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky.) To emphasize the situation further-- Lincoln IL had just 1.88" rain in May, 45% of normal. Since March 1, Lincoln has had just 6.4" rain, only 61% of normal.

    Looking ahead to this coming week, there is another chance for rain in the eastern Midwest. The U.S. forecast model has a range of mostly .75-2" amounts for Indiana and Ohio. We'll see. Not everyone in these states gets this rain, however. Also, there still isn't much to heal the rainfall deficit in Illinois west to central Iowa. Parts of Missouri get some moisture. This trend is enough to warrant the trade being a little on edge regarding Corn Belt moisture--if and when weather and its impact on production manages to get the market's attention.


    I'm on Twitter @BAndersonDTN


    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.
  4. kanellop


    Hello Again to All.

    Here are some News that published in the Thomson Reuters Inside Agriculture Report of 04/06/2012.

    Here are:


    Recent rains not enough to solve corn state dryness

    By Gavin Maguire

    CHICAGO, June 1 (Reuters) - Some rain finally fell on parched Midwest cornfields this week to give the emerging corn crop a much-needed boost.

    But soils in the top two U.S. corn growing states of Iowa and Illinois have suffered from such intense moisture deficiencies so far this growing season

    that further abundant rains are required before moisture reserves can return to normal levels.

    And although the all-important pollination phase for corn still lies several weeks away,

    crop conditions have already started to deteriorate sharply in many key areas to suggest

    that the recently voiced concerns about diminishing yield potential are not unfounded.


    As welcome as the recent rain and cooler temperatures have been,

    much more precipitation is needed merely to bring soil moisture levels back to normal levels.

    Top corn-producing state Iowa has been particularly dry, with soil moisture levels well below their average readings so far this year.

    Limited rainfall this spring and a relatively dry winter,

    are the chief drivers of the dryness, and the recent hot spell has accentuated the drought by promoting high evaporation rates.

    Graphic of U.S., Iowa and Illinois key crop weather statistics: http://link.reuters.com/num58s

    As we move into the hotter months of the year,

    evaporation rates will only accelerate,

    and so could make soil moisture replenishment all the more difficult.

    Further, the compacted and parched earth currently seen across large stretches of the U.S. Corn Belt tends to harden over time to form an almost waterproof barrier.

    And ironically this means that any subsequent heavy downpours are more likely to cause localized flooding and chemical run-off rather than replenish moisture reserves,

    and so could actually cause more harm than good.

    The recent sprinkling of rains will certainly have helped soften the earth in some areas to make it more accommodative of any additional rains.

    But those sections that missed the latest rains will become increasingly vulnerable to "caking" unless they receive rains soon as well.


    The amount of the national crop rated in good to excellent condition declined by close to 6.5 percent over the past week,

    after having gotten off to a very strong start, as the dry and hot conditions took their toll.

    At the same time, the amount of the crop rated in poor condition doubled, from 2 percent to 4 percent.

    Many of the top-producing states saw similar declines in crop health,

    with top-state Iowa suffering a 14 percent slump in the excellent category and a 5 percent dip in the good-to- excellent band.

    The amount of Iowa corn rated to be in poor condition increased to 3 percent, from 2 percent the week prior.

    No. 2 state Illinois suffered a more serious condition slump,

    with the good-to-excellent rating dropping by 16 percent over the week,

    and the proportion of the crop rated as poor to very poor doubling to 6 percent.

    Graphic of U.S. corn crop ratings:


    Somewhat offsetting the declines seen in Illinois and Iowa were continued strong ratings in Nebraska and Minnesota - the third and fourth largest corn growing states


    However, it is arguable that crop development in Illinois is at least a week ahead of that seen in the Western Corn Belt,

    and so could prove to be a precursor of what may be seen out west in upcoming ratings reports.

    In any event, the overall trend in the health of the corn crop appears to be flagging somewhat lately amid the shortage of regular rains,

    and upcoming rating reports should remain a closelytracked gauge of crop potential over the coming weeks.


    Although the corn crop's most critical growth phase (pollination) is still some weeks away,

    the early start to planting in 2012 has brought forward overall plant development by several weeks.

    Close to 100 percent of the corn planted in the top five growing states in the country has emerged,

    which is well ahead of the 5-year average for this week of the year.

    This rapid development pace - accentuated by the warm temperatures which further hasten crop growth - will mean

    that this year's corn plants will reach pollination and maturity faster than usual too.

    Graphic of 2012 corn crop progress versus previous years:


    Indeed, the current pace suggests that parts of the U.S. crop will reach their pollination phase towards the end of June,

    and will begin their kernel fill stage in late July/early August.

    As the kernel filling process can be highly moisture-dependent and energy intensive for the plants,

    the faster-than-usual growth pace should mean that that critical period will occur earlier in the summer than normal - and so potentially ahead of the hottest weeks of

    the season.

    However, given the generally warmer-than-usual winter, spring and early summer, many forecasters predict the hot and dry trend to persist,

    which could suggest that just because this year's crop got off to an early start does not mean it will encounter cool and wet conditions during pollination.

    Indeed, if further rains fail to materialize and temperatures remain higher than normal overall,

    this year's crop could well enter its key reproductive phase amid generally threatening conditions which could clearly stunt overall crop potential.

    It is still way too early to forecast such a gloomy outlook given the changeable nature of weather conditions across the Midwest as summer rolls in.

    But given the critically low soil moisture levels seen across the top corn-producing states,

    it's also too early to consider the latest round of rains as having done enough to reverse the early damage seen and steer to crop out of the woods.

    (Gavin Maguire is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.

    To get his real-time views on the market, please join the Global Ags Forum.)


    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.
  5. kanellop


    Hello Again to All.

    Here are some other News:


    http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com...&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc372e8fba0137b837c4060578 .

    Monday 4th of June 2012,

    Mostly Dry Corn Belt Outlook

    Highlights from our DTN market weather outlook video Monday June 4:

    The first full week of June gets going with BULLISH market weather factors for corn and soybeans this Monday because of that stressful dry trend—and wheat is NEUTRAL TO BULLISH—catching some of the lift from the row crop setup.

    Monday morning radar offers a little rain in the southern states—some thundershowers in Mississippi and Alabama. But this area is not big enough to consider the showers much more than localized in terms of their effect on soil moisture.

    How dry has it been—check out the past 30 days rainfall. The majority of the Midwest—the central and southern Plains—and part of the Delta have seen rainfall running 2 to 4 inches below normal. And locations within the Delta had 4 to 6 inch rainfall deficits just in the past 30 days. It’s this dryness that puts the bullish market weather factor into play for row crops today.

    Forecast 5-day precipitation—as you can see—most of the Midwest is still dry—less than a quarter inch rainfall in store this week. And as noted—this dryness threatens to reduce the size of the corn crop for sure—and quite possibly the soybean crop as well.

    Forecast five day highs—the only saving grace for the Midwest is that temperatures will be cool overall this week. But a warming trend in the northwest Plains and Canadian Prairies will be working east by the end of the week.

    The jet stream outlook for the period ending Thursday June 14 has good model agreement. Both U.S. and Euro models show the storm track focus over the northern tier of states—which basically means very warm and dry for the central, eastern and southern Midwest through the Delta and southern Plains going into mid-June.

    And for Russia and Kazakhstan-not much in the way of rain this week. Generally less than a quarter-inch with very spotty rain showers. More stress for wheat in the former New Lands region.


    I'm on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

    Posted at 10:58AM CDT 06/04/12 by Bryce Anderson


    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.
  6. kanellop


    Hello Again to All.

    Here are some News that published in the Thomson Reuters Inside Agriculture Report of 05/06/2012.

    Here are:


    High U.S. corn prices warn of summer shortage

    By Charles Abbott

    WASHINGTON, June 4 (Reuters) - From Ohio to Kansas, corn is selling at startlingly high prices,

    so high that they are signaling the United States will run short of corn this summer.

    If it does run short, the impact could be felt worldwide.

    Sales to big export customers like Mexico, Japan, South Korea,

    and China could take a hit as America grows 40 percent of the corn sold on the world market.

    Domestically, sky-high prices could have U.S. millers suspending operations.

    If corn for feed costs too much than milk, egg and meat farmers could curtail production leading to higher food prices.

    These continued high prices have also sharpened arguments by analysts

    that the government may not have a reliable picture of the shrinking stockpile.

    Some analysts say the Agriculture Department has over-estimated the supply,

    so that the situation is worse than it looks.

    Their argument is built around the "basis," which is the difference between the local price for corn and the futures price in Chicago.

    A strong basis is a signal to growers to sell their corn now, especially with a record corn harvest expected in the fall.

    But, this year farmers are not selling.

    Prices on the cash market, where processors and livestock feeders buy corn for use today,

    have been unusually high for months.

    They are well above Chicago futures prices and much higher than historically at this time.

    "Either farmers aren't selling or the corn isn't there," said Glenn Hollander,

    co-owner of Hollander-Feuerhaken, a Chicago brokerage and cash merchant.

    Even with strong basis, it was difficult to buy corn for domestic use, he said in late May.

    In central Illinois, the basis was 53 cents a bushel above futures prices on Monday,

    half a dollar higher than a year ago.

    In Cincinnati, the basis was 30 cents above Chicago.

    In western Kansas, home to ethanol makers and cattle feeders, the basis from January-May was the highest in four years.

    Scott Irwin, agricultural economist at the University of Illinois, says the corn isn't there.

    Irwin and Illinois colleague Darrel Good say the persistently high basis is evidence from the marketplace

    that USDA has over-estimated the corn supply.

    "Basis is still screaming shortage," said Irwin in mid-May.

    "The problem is getting worse."


    USDA estimates the corn supply at the end of August, the annual low point before the fall harvest,

    will be adequate for exporters, millers, and livestock feeders,

    although at 851 million bushels it will be the smallest in 16 years.

    There are ways to stretch the supply.

    Livestock producers could feed wheat instead of corn to their animals

    and the early spring planting season means some of this year's corn crop will hit the market early.

    Regardless, traders and analysts have complained since June 2010

    that USDA is too optimistic about stocks and USDA's estimates of stocks are less reliable than they used to be.

    The disagreement in viewpoints can jolt the markets.

    In one day in June 2011, corn futures prices plummeted a record 10 percent,

    or 69 cents a bushel,

    when USDA said corn supplies were 10 percent larger than expected.

    This year, the next USDA corn stocks estimate will be released June 29.

    "I suggest treating all USDA corn data as if it were infected with a deadly virus,"

    said one of the sharpest critics,

    John Macintosh of Rand Financial Services Inc in Chicago after USDA's stock estimate in March.

    He says USDA was slow to account for drought losses in South America and under-estimated corn usage at home.

    Macintosh says corn stocks are headed for unprecedented tightness and cites the "extraordinarily strong" basis as a corroborating signal.

    Not everyone agrees that local prices are an iron-clad gauge.

    Bill Tierney of AgResource Co in Chicago sees more factors in the corn supply picture than suggested by basis.

    Farmers erected enough grain bins since 2006 to expand their storage capacity by 10 percent and,

    thanks to high crop prices and record-high income,

    have less need to sell grain to pay their spring-planting bills.

    From May 2011, USDA has projected unusually tight corn supplies,

    which could inspire farmers to wait for high prices.

    Tierney maintains that corn prices are much more sensitive to tight supplies since the ethanol boom began in 2006.

    The biofuel's share of the corn crop doubled in five years while U.S. corn production rose by less than one-fifth.

    Corn reserves are much smaller than they used to be.

    Disappointing harvests in 2010 and 2011 thinned supplies as well.

    "Why all the focus on corn?

    For the past two years, we've had below-trend line yields and record prices," said Tierney.


    USDA says its survey and estimating methodology, honed by decades of experience, produces reliable stocks data.

    For all the grumbling, in the end the trade adopts USDA's figures as the starting point for calculating supplies.

    For its latest corn stocks estimate, USDA surveyed 84,500 farmers and all 8,900 commercial facilities,

    such as warehouses, terminal elevators, processors and feed mills, that hold corn.

    In conducting its farmer survey, USDA tries to contact all large farms with exceptional storage,

    which it calls extreme operators, and for the rest employs a systematic sample plan.

    While all farmers have an equal chance of being selected for the survey,

    growers have a higher chance of being contacted as their storage capacity goes up.

    When it has replies in hand,

    USDA weights responses to reflect a farm's size and proportional share of storage usually held by its peers as it builds state and national totals.

    It imputes a figure for nonresponses by commercial facilities.

    For March, USDA said the corn stocks figure had a margin of error of 4.4 percent for the on-farm total,

    roughly the same margin as previous years.

    USDA sets its sample size to assure its desired level of precision.

    Joseph Prusacki, director of the statistics division at USDA's agricultural statistics agency,

    said farmers seem less willing to participate in surveys.

    Analysts often say the government ought to monitor distillers dried grains,

    an ethanol byproduct and a livestock feed substitute for corn, but in budget-cutting times, a new report seems unlikely.

    "I think you would have to say we are headed to worse reports," said Chris Hurt, agricultural economist at Purdue University,

    pointing to cancellation of Census Bureau reports on soybean crush and soyoil use.

    Because of that, USDA no longer estimates soyoil for biodiesel.

    "Those who do not have market power are not going to have it (information)," said Hurt.

    "If you're a believer in commodity markets, you really don't want to get it second or third hand."


    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.
  7. kanellop


    Hello Again to All.

    Here are some other News:


    http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com...&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc37bec78d0137cd4a7bdc00a4 .

    From Mike Palmerino.

    Friday 8th of June 2012,

    Midwest weather pattern comments.

    Despite it being a rather dry week across the Midwest overall crop conditions for corn and soybeans are stable due to the lack of any significant hot weather.
    The outlook for the next 7 days continues to look stable with no significant heat and some light to moderate showers and thunderstorms early next week.

    DTN analyst John Sanow pointed out the descrepancy between the current Crop Moisture Index (CMI) and the Drought Monitor. The CMI indicates no major dryness issues in the Midwest in terms of short term crop moisture needs. This is basicallly true. However the drought monitor indicates major producing areas of the Midwest are in a moisture deficit whch is also true. This is what makes the weather forecasts so critical.

    We have written before about the volitility and unpredictibility of the weather patterns this year and we see no reason the change our opinion now. Any shift to hot, dry weather under the deficit moisture profiles in much of the Midwest would lead to a dramatic downturn in crop ratings in a very short period of time. This is a concern we will continue to face.

    We do see indications on the long range 8-14 day outlook of a turn towards above normal tempertaures and below normal rainfall across much of the Midwest. However this is a long range outlook and subject to significant day to day changes. However it seems highly likely that we will see another round of crop threatening weather in the Midwest at some point during the growing season, possibly before the month is out.



    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.