Healthy Action* watch for Jan 25

Discussion in 'Trading' started by stonedinvestor, Jan 18, 2007.

  1. The nature of the action suggests overhead supply rather than a strong desire to sell. Folks want to sell stuff when it jumps higher> For now the path of least resistance remains higher, so far this looks like a normal pullback / consolidation. The key is the NASD needs to hold above 2460-2470 support. Ideally above 2475 support which was tested Wednesday. A move higher from current levels will look good. Breaking back below 2465 will target support around 2430'ish. The next higher Fibonacci target zone for the NASD is 2545-2565. Interestingly, NYSE cumulative breadth registered another new all time high on Wednesday. While we might see a pullback in reaction to Thursday's economic news, it is very uncommon for total breadth to peak at the same time as the market peaks. So while the action looks somewhat tired and extended, from a longer-term perspective, there are healthy metrics. When looking at the overall internal picture relative to prices, we have a situation where the internals more or less peaked with prices last week. Now we have a slight pullback that is setting the internals up for a divergent type high over the next one to seven days depending on how things play out. The longer-term cycle momentum peak on the 19th remains a consideration. There is another momentum peak on the 25th, which is almost as high. Then the turn date is February 4th. I have been focused on the 19th because of the momentum peak in conjunction with options expiration. However, if prices hold firm then look for the rally to extend out into next week. The hump is post expiration Monday, but they have been benign of late. From a seasonal stand point, January 25 plus or minus a day or so has been an interesting seasonal turning point.