heads up on dec NFP / unemployment

this number wasn't bad enough, it needed to be 300k+ and worse on unemployment- instead they are going to be delayed for the next sample period. next month is going to be a shit show could see 350k+ nfp

 

Many were expecting a 250,000-300,000 job loss, but since it was such a great number -247,000 p ) the market is cheering such a fantastic number.

 

Those numbers are total bullshit. Next month they will be revised to 325,000 at least.

 

Still trying to connect payroll numbers and market reaction?

A futile effort.

 

Maybe they will be revised to 350k or maybe to 150k. BLS NFP numbers have a sampling error of +/- 100k. This goes in both directions.

 

You have to accept the notion that the number was "leaked" earlier in the week.

 

this 4/02/08 article gives a breakdown on how the rate's calculated explaining why
unemployment may be double that reported:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/70958-lies-damn-lies-and-the-unemployment-rate
this one was published Nov 7 with additional data - check the difference in the charts:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/104846-the-real-unemployment-numbers?source=article_lb_articles