A couple of days ago, the AAA and AA, i.e. the top rated (by credit rating) sub-prime bonds' pricing took a swan dive. Look at the ABX indices at Markit or just visit http://bigpicture.typad.com/ and visit his 7/16 posting. Today, Tuesday the 17th of July after the market close, we now know that the 2 salubrious Bear Stearns sub-prime hedge funds are toast or close to it. Valuations put one at zero and the less levered of the two at 10 cents on the $ in terms of NAV. We knew they were being clobbered but the consensus view just a few days ago was way more optimistic than we now know. The afore mentioned ABX swan dive was almost certainly the advanced manifestation of this hedge fund implosion . BUT, take a look at the VIX. It has traded in a tight range today, yesterday and Friday, i.e no elevated fear on this drastic turn of events. I looked at the VIX and thought its non response to the apparent credit market dislocation meant that the situation must be somewhat contained. I mean, these markets are pretty fas to react right? Risk aversion is agnostic. If it infiltrates bonds it should surely migrate to stocks, especially high beta and small caps. Comments?
That's because absolutely NOTHING has changed on ET. The same pathetic posts by people that never trade. You, of ALL people should know about that. Being a free website, it's what gives ET the only value that it can possibly have . . . that of being a tremendous Contrarian indicator.
1.5--2.0 billion is simply not that much money in the grand scheme. There have been individual companies who announced stock buybacks many times that size recently (ConocoPhillips announced a 15 BILLION dollar buyback just last week!!!!)
I think tomorrow could be ugly, but the BSC fiasco is perversely bullish once time is taken to digest the news. The Street likes closure. I am long since out of BSC, but would go long deltas if we touch 142 tomorrow.
Quiet dont tell the Doom and Gloomers on here they would rather run around screaming the sky is falling in
That's not good for waggie and his 1559.09 eliot wave. But of course the waggie/eliot excuses should be more entertaining when it misses this figure anyway .
Just so that everyone understands what's going on, the entire opening post was taken almost word for word from an article written on July 12, 2002 by somebody named Adam Hamilton: http://www.zealllc.com/2002/spcrash.htm . Unless Michael Scott is Adam Hamilton, we have a case of plagiarism with a twist: at the time this apocalyptic article was written, the S&P was trading at around 900.
A very valid point! Just think years ahead though there will be legistration on the floor of the Shitnate (otherwise know as Sentate) for this major fraud. I am not throwing in the bear side here just mentioning a future fact. (IMHO) Many of these companies are lying their ARSE'S off and a decent ammount of these buy backs will never happen. This is not a current bearish statement, just a note to remember when a few years turn. This will be the next major WAH WAH on Wall Street. Any doubt's on my current assesment of the market's please read previous post!