Thx re short caution tips the last few weeks, kept me out of trouble aggro bottomfishing inverses. I'm mostly cash, small size both long and inverses to hedge. I still look forward to a massive selloff sometime, but am day and swing trading long breakouts til then. #1 tip = pay close attention to the VIX for potential bearish upside reversal. Look at today's TVIX chart, upside move, I bought 110. In market I monitor TRIN closely, today it stayed bullish well under 1. Market feels like bubble speculative run, the selloff will be even more spectacular and it'll be fast. We're in bear capitulation territory which means short squeeze liquidity will slow buying pressure. Watch the VIX https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/mik...nkrupt-hertz-jumps-vix-signaling-caution.html
It was like this in 1999, but what you're forgetting is that the market kept defying gravity for over a year. Starting at the October 1998 bottom, the Naz rose 60% in 3 months. Then kept going and going and going as bears kept saying "This is irrational, it can't keep doing this". Kinda like what people are saying now and for the past few weeks? It more than tripled by the time it was all over. The current 47% rally isn't so unprecedented.
YW. Good strategy . Today i never even looked at the short side even for a quick scalp . I'm only playing the long side for counter scalps till we get to 3000-3050 . If we can get back down there it'll show the mkt's softened up and Can be shorted to hold for more than 30 mins .When euphoria's this high rarely do you reverse and crack hard and fast . Actually it'd be very healthy if we got a pullback to 2950 or so and based a while .There's so much uncertainty with the virus, unemployment ,Bankruptcies going into the fall. Hard to believe they don't at least shake the tree super hard by sept or so. But nobody on earth saw this type and speed of rally. I don't think not one 1/2 reputable analyst see even a remote chance of ever seeing the march lows . That would put this rally to shame in shock value .
I said the s@p and the speed of it . I just looked from Aug 1998 lows to highs in may 99 it went from about 960 to 1500 or so . Thats around a 47% or so run but it took 9 months . We did this in 10 weeks . Also the internet was in its infancy and earnings were going wild at 30-40% in many co's from csco to msft. Were coming off the biggest shock in world history possibly and to boot coming off a world record 11 yr bull mkt. This is 100 times more shocking .
Agree re 3k, I'd want to see it lose that and trend down at least a few days before putting my bear cap back on. Also thx re your earlier tip re strength in slow steady grind up, like SPY SPXL, excellent insight. Award for "wish I'd traded it today " goes to BYND perfect 45degree daylong runner
Hard to compare 1999 to now, really no comparison can be made, back then the internet was up and coming and the frenzy to literally buy anything with a dot com attached to its named soared. That new technology was something we had never seen before and anybody and everyone wanted in...Not only that but you had stocks announcing 2 for 1, 3 for 1 4 for 1, stock splits every week where just on that announcement alone sent the stock soaring double digits after the close and into the next trading day. You cannot make a comparison today to 1999, sorry.
I agree. And I think the real test is once the free monthly paycheck runs out, and the mortgage and rent deferrals expire. And of course, when evictions can start up again. I remember reading sometime around August we should see where the chips fall.
Unbelievable, ...how can this possibly be. Geeesh.....the world was expecting nasdaq 10,000 today.. Dow Jones 27,151.0 DERIVED 04:43:58 | Futures -376.0 -1.37% S&P 500 3,193.50 DERIVED 04:43:29 | Futures -34.00 -1.05% Nasdaq 9,820.25 DERIVED 04:43:58 | Futures -64.50 -0.65% SmallCap 2000 1,501.55 DERIVED 04:44:01 | Futures -35.45
not to say i told you so, but.... muhaha bears are back like i predicted yesterday amidst the bubble euphoria just a dent in spy though as of just before 7am, i'm using 319 support 321 res
The thing to understand is that market psych is coming to see large cap indices as a risk-free asset, with presently 4x-5x the yield of Treasuries. The Fed will never hike and will respond to any significant selloff with unlimited buying. This is the real story, four figure account RH gambling is the sideshow. Trillions of portfolio dollars will be rebalanced towards equities in the coming years, until something happens to shatter confidence in this narrative. Doesn't mean there won't be selloffs or consolidation lasting a number of months, but each one will get shorter and shallower. Each could be the last real chance to get on the train, for position traders or investors.