Discussion in 'Stocks' started by ang_99, Jan 14, 2007.
Weird huh... just a weekend observation. Added 10 Bill in market cap in 2 days..
i like it - i think this stock deserves a nice run. its a great copmpany, well managed, nice cash flow. if google can trade at 80 times earnings for a fucking search engine why cant we give ol softy a 30 pe
breaking out of a nice range too on the monthly chart...
Tell me about it. I enjoyed it a lot Bought it at 22-24 range last summer. I turned less bullish on it though. Shorted some $35 calls.
yeah this company is a beast, its like trying to make a sharp turn with an aircraft carrier..
So far they managed to do it a couple of times successfully and doing it again right now.
PS I think you off by about $5B in your calculations.
Shares Outstanding: 9.83B
Close on 1/10: $29.66
Close on 1/12: $31.21
Market cap chage in two days +$15.24B
All as expected.
FV imo is ~$32.50
What is your formula for FV?
I have been expecting Microsoft to become a $30+ stock this year. Didn't expect it this fast I must admit.
This is going to be a good year for Microsoft I think.
Clearly Vista coming out is a major even for them even though a lot of people expect adoption to be slow. I expect it will be a turning point in their operating systems. Also, their Office update looks like a whole new world of functionality...I tried an early Beta and think it is indeed.
Couple that with a lot of other things they've been doing with their Windows Live, the XBox360, Zune, etc. and you have a much brighter future.
I'm finding $32.50 Calls for June especially attractive...although if you move out to January 08 Calls you see they're pretty cheap.
Microsoft has enough in cash and experience to pull some surprises and it wouldn't surprise me if they did.
One thing I read about Microsoft that struck me as a wonderful way to view the company is regarding their rollout of the Xbox video game system. They may now be first to market(Sony had a huge and dominating lead with the Playstation), but they have the easy ability to outlast and exploit weakness over time. Sony's recent Playstation3 rollout was late and Microsoft gained a huge edge with that. Sony really seems to have blundered in a number of ways by pricing their system much higher than Microsoft's and having such limited quantities. Also, Microsoft is credited with having revolutionized online gaming for multiplayers with the Xbox Live community.
One other reason that Microsoft demand for newer and more multimedia laden version of Windows will remain strong is the population and amount of avid gamers. Apple simply doesn't cater to them and any serious gamer has a Windows system.
All they did was decide an earlier launch date, nothing more. In the video game industry, it does not mean much, just look at how Playstation One overtook the industry, even with 1st year dismal sales. What Microsoft has is tons of cash to burn and zero concern for actual economics, which is THE ONLY reason Xbox even made it to the living room. They sunk so much money into it to make sure it got a place in the market, any other company in the past pulled the plug way prior (Jaguar, 3DO, Dreamcast, etc.). That, and the fact that it was the easiest system to pirate, lol.
And the ONLY reason Xbox 360 is doing good is because there are many gamers out there who just want Next-Gen and the Wii & PS3 are sold out for months to come. I think that most gamers will get 2-3 systems anyway, the industry has grown so big that competition among Nintendo, Sony & Microsoft has actually decreased. It's now really more about Sony vs Microsoft for the multimedia dominace, a one way gateway in the living room. Sony obviously has the technological & expertise edge but Microsoft has a gigantic pile of cash to back them up. And Bill Gates is crazy egomaniac.
Which brings me to Vista. Not a well known fact, but the corporate version of Vista (and possibly the home one too) has some very interesting license agreement details in regards to the information you store, send & receive on your computer and server when you use Vista. Also, either within Vista itself or with a future add on geared for businesses, Microsoft wants to offer data storage services. Basically, they want to have access & control to all your digital information and I think they will get it. So buy MSFT.
You're one of those guys who thinks Microsoft is out to get you huh? Okay buddy...go to Linux, see how you like it? Or am I now going to get a lecture about how you're already on Linux and it's the best thing ever? blah blah blah.
What are you talking about regarding Microsoft storing your information on their server? Private information? Stuff you send to them to store? What? Microsoft hijacks your private data so they can store it and fiend over it like demons?
And you took my statement about the Xbox out of context...either you were too lazy to think about it and just wanted to run your mind or you truly didn't understand it.
Your theories on the Xbox are off base with the entire video game industry...Microsoft is hailed as the king of multi-player over the net on a tv console...but you'd rather just go on gabbing about conspiracies and Microsoft's evil visions.
Is Bill Gates really using that $30B to buy land in Africa to experiment human cloning? Or is he buying a supercomputer that can read people's minds and steal their dreams?
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