Do you believe future is certain? This is a probabilistic assessment at best. I seriously think the way Db or I think about markets or prices is diametrically different from how you think about them. I seriously was shocked to hear that statement. It could be just a different in how we perceive opportunities. Doesn't that depend on the type of trader? Oil could actually go down but what if it does go up a bit, enough to squeeze some profit? Aren't you actually bringing to light what Db has been saying all along that everyone has a different risk tolerance and they need to adapt the strategy to their personality and needs. This is not automated trading we're talking about. You may be right. Maybe your tools are far advanced. Are they also resilient enough to last a century and the next once one masters those tools, or would newer and better tools make your current tools obsolete? If things work for you that's all fine and dandy. I hold no grudge that your system works for you. All the best. Gringo
As someone who trades CL everyday, and also uses TLs to help mark off supply/demand/channels of interest, I can say that a 6 month TL doesn't really mean much. More useful lines are in the 1 month and 15-30m charts.
You're correct that the six-month TL in CL doesn't mean anything in and of itself, but I'd be happy to draw it anyway. I drew what I did to show the trend break. Detecting trend breaks is a problem for millions of traders, which is why there was so much buying on the way down.
The trend lines track the trend. They do not cause it, any more than a thermometer causes the temperature. The higher swing high at the end of January has nothing to do with trend lines.
The assumption that trend lines somehow act on price, and the inevitable realization that they do not is the leading cause of the conclusion by anti-TA traders that TA does not work, imo. As with most things in trading, as in life, most people would rather assume the tool is broken than admit they do not know how to use it properly.
Sorry I'm new here and I couldn't find it by searching your previous posts; what tools do you use? (Not looking for specifics, just genuinely interested.)
Funny how some people will process only what they want to process in order to make a pointless dig. I suppose it has to do at least in part with shallow thought.