The fact that this thread has gone on for so long is sad and actually exposes the mentality of a lot of traders on here. To continuously go on and on about another man's teachings that you obviously don't believe in shows that you haven't done your own homework and that you're mad because that person's approach doesn't teach you how to trade as you feel you should be taught. Those who've done the work to create their own working methods are secure. So much so that they don't have to persistently harass someone about their methods...those people can simply disagree and leave it at that. Those that are in this thread constantly fussing and looking to "expose" fall into either one or two categories. It is those that either don't have profitable methods after many years of trading, or, new traders who don't want to do their own research and that are upset because a man's teachings doesn't offer the holy grail they seek.
Not upset here, just exposing false claims that's all. Autodidact is the way to go, you and the market, not forums, but have a ball!
What the future price will be is unknowable. And irrelevant. If price drops below 44, do nothing. If it moves sideways, do nothing. If it breaks out of its current range, buy it.
You say that because you don't have predictive tools. Oil did not bottom, and at the very least, will re-test the lows, my read is giving me a high enough probability trade (although not 100%) to state that. Not everyone trades using the same amateur tools you use.