Discussion in 'Trading' started by balda, Oct 12, 2006.
If this true market will soon explode.
we is ready ...
That is a major factor that many people are either ignoring or not aware of. You can't trade the markets via almanac and get your selloff every October like it's a regular meal.
I have seen this posted in numerous blogs in the past days.
The Chart of Interest shows you the weekly short sales by the public, or the so called "crowd" or "herd" (dumb money), divided by total weekly NYSE volume, compared to the weekly short sales by NYSE specialists (smart money).
how accurate is this....
The site looks like one of the paid sites trying to sell you something....
The depicted chart ends in June. My calendar tells me it's October. Mutual funds' fiscal year's end in October. For what it's worth, so does the US government.
There's always a two week LAG in member reporting. Part of the rig.
Another rig is specialists using puts (or short calls) in lieu of outright shorts making the chart possibly slightly deceptive.
NYSE short interest has been published for multiple decades. Barron's and WSJ for example. If it were THAT easy, why............... it would BE easy.
Explains the persistent rally. Doesn't necessarily forecast the future.
Short interest pertains to floating supply. However, ALL stock would have to move up on the suggested explosion. Suggests potential inventory problems for the specialist.
Chart's posture is a snapshot of a point in time. Cash on hand on a company's balance sheet is also a snapshot of a point in time. Specialists probably short virtually everyday, albeit for BRIEF periods. You'd be surprised how fast they can ramp UP their short interest. Particularly AFTER they've liquidated their tax segregated omnibus accounts. No longer having an interest in their respective stock(s) rising.
Selling into strength is a simple concept. IF public demand exceeds inventory, they have no choice but to be NET SHORT. Once again, it's October, not June.
A historic lack of short interest could be they have numerous negotiated blocks to now re-market. Naturally, HIGHER. Also implies prior owners of those blocks gone. And quite possibly with concessions to get out of Dodge. Not exactly investment merit.
Public's always "wrong" So what else is new? Actually, they're not conceptually wrong. Just woefully early. Seduced by high fliers (just as other clowns are seduced by perceived bargains).
That public figure includes hedge funds. How's their aggregate performance? Yep, they could be potential rocket fuel en masse covering.
Funny how the.......eh........participants here dismiss the NYSE specialist as going the way of the buggy whip but now implying his ability to shoot fish in a barrel.
The date format on those charts is yy-mm-dd.
Wrong, the chart ends on September 8th.
As for the rest of your post - you don't know what you're talking about, in my humble opinion.
I'll concede in my error on the dates. Too lazy to turn my head sideways or discern date formats.
Nevertheless it's a month stale.
Now......the sailient point. I can assure you I know what I'm talking about. You wanna have a pissing contest?
Allow me to suggest sir, it's YOU that probably doesn't know what he's talking about. Or.......perhaps merely only seeing what he wants to see.
Bring it on.
No, I don't really want to have a pissing contest. I retract the "you don't know...." comment. I admit that's not the kind of thing that leads to worthwhile debate here. Sorry.
I just disagree with so much of what you say in your post and I'm too lazy to post a lengthy response right now. I might give it a shot later.
Separate names with a comma.