"Sornette cautions that his model allows him to make broad predictions, but is not able to predict where the stock market will be on any particular day or week. " - -- Ucla So basically it doesnt tell us much. Thanks a lot. <------ Sarcasm
where does this hostility against academic and phd's come from. does what u don't understand scare you? or does the comparison to your primitive and dogmatic methods trigger some inferior complex in some of you. just one advice, you are never going to learn anything new in this way. I don't really understand all this reference to TA gurus (jeff cooper, where's he now??). Econophsyics is not exactly TA..right? That not even a unifying definition for TA. why the hell are u guys trying to link them together?
Part of the problem stems from the other side of the fences. Phynance, Econophysics, etc. have close to zero respect for TA and surpirsingly, Economics. Ask them about about EHM. Ask them about head-and-shoulder, Gann wheels, elliott Wave theory .... You get the point. Its presumptuous on their part to think that they have "reinvented the wheel" when economists and traders have been doing this for centuries. Just my two cents.
>This is all a waste of time. These Phd's have finally found a field >where they can get decent-paying jobs and are trying to milk it >for all its worth. Did you ever wonder that those that work for Wall Street are paid NOT to be competent arf arf ! Because in other fields as in engineering they would be destroyed and lose their jobs ! But some researchers are independant and among them they are true founders. I don't need Sornette's model - since I have my own and I don't trade on long term basis - but for long term his model can be worth and as usual another point of view is always interesting. >William O'Neill and Jeff Cooper both frequently make the >observation that it is not necessary to predict the market but >only to understand where you are now. Try to drive your car by looking at its wheels and tell me the results: Yes you must understand where you are now BUT you must also look a few meters in front of you .
>The Inefficiency gets ironed out ... eventually. You said it but the essential is in your 3 dots "..." Every process TAKES SOME TIMES (even the light speed is not infinite and was the root of Einstein's relativity idea) and that's one can profit from . If you come once efficiency has been established well it's too late. If not so I would consider stock market as worth as a true casino . A casino is mostly efficient since there is no delay whereas stock market has a big delay ... because building a propaganda to tell a fairy tale to the public mass takes some times : brains are slow compared to the machine .
the last session has confirmed that the theorical TL at 8524.41 (real 8526.xx) was an important top, since it is very near the theorical top of monthly scale of 8575 (see above post), the market could be considered as toppish on mid-term that is to say the shorters would begin to prepare their guns .
Finally!! a post by harry that I not only understand (sort of) but also agree with. Ze frensh arrr maybeee not dat, how you say... bad?
Two years ago I have made a mailing with those kind of alerts I know people like that but it bored me I stopped to do so . Perharps I will do it again one day.