Have you heard of Didier Sornette?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Babak, Jan 19, 2003.

  1. Babak


    He's a UCLA physicist and complex systems theorist who has written a new book that puts forward his theory that stock crashes are predictable.

    Here is his personal link:


    And here's a link to related UCLA press release:


    I read his page but couldn't make head or tail of what he was saying. Since I also can't make head or tails of what HarryTrader usually is saying I thought perhaps he would be good enough to put his croissant down for a moment to enlighten us.

    Of course, others who are equally or more so gifted with similar knowledge would also prove their magnanimity by clarifying this topic for the benefit of mere mortals.
  2. OHLC


    'Sornette' in French means 'bullshit' :D

  3. He looks like a cross between Scott Bakula and Tom Selleck.

    His market theories may truly be a quantum leap. Perhaps he has come back to make right what once went wrong. If it can be done, now is definitely the point in time which it needs to be done.

  4. omcate



    Never mix science with the stock market. The fundamental assumption in science is that the Laws of Nature never change. We just need to discover and understand them.

    Stock prices are affected by psychology. Fear and greed are two famous factors. Human psychology changes all the time. Nothing is certain in trading.
    :( :( :(

  5. thanks for the link. sornette is definately onto something. human emotions like fear and greed run in cycles as a whole--repetive patterns--- that untill quantum and complex system theory emerged were largely unknown and not understandable. techniques like elliott wave, kwave, and gann analysis reflect the tip of the iceberg when it comes to exploiting these emotive cycles. complex system and quantum theory are starting to give us the tools to gain a deeper understanding of the true "tides in the affairs of men" hope this helps.

    all the best,

  6. CA also has alot to offer for complex systems, and a shame he mentions Von Neuman in the book with Game theory but not with CA. Marketsurfer, what is kwave?
  7. Banjo


  8. hi plumber,

    k wave is short for kondratieff wave which is a 54 year long cycle "discovered" by a little known russian economist in 1926. yeah, CA is also an interesting topic.


  9. Dammit Babak,

    There you go providing other traders with useful information. : )
    I have been on to Sornette for a good six months now. I've even been in contact with him a few times as I've tried replicating his methods. It has been hard to replicate his work as it is fairly technical and there are issues as to how to iterate through the data. I think his underlying theories can be applied almost universally to different markets. I was just going to mail him some old REIT data this morning that seemed to exhibit the tell tale periodic buildup and subsequent crash pattern. All in all I think Sornette is a genius and his work will gain in popularity with the release of his book.
    Waiting for the next crash ...

  10. See if he can give out a chart with a more useful scale. Something I can print out and compare at the end of every month to the S & P.

    #10     Jan 19, 2003