1) Just because price did something, does not mean that it's any more likely to do something in the short or long term future. 2) There is no "trend." The market has just as much of a chance of continuing in your predicted direction as it does reversing at the time you enter, or at any point after you enter. Understanding these two things was the turning point in my trading. And it goes without saying that indicators aren't goint to help you. See #1. Indicators just tell you when price has done a specific thing, usually relative to what it was just doing. 90% of indicators really only tell you if price is higher or lower than it was x bars ago. People add ambiguous information to them to make them seem specific, like an 80 or 20 line, and then say "above 80 is oversold!" (except for all the times when price hits 80 and then keeps going up) or whatever, as if that's going to help anyone trade. It's all nonsense. But you won't believe this until you test them all yourself, reverse engineer the ones that vendors try to sell you, and then create your own. And the reason you won't believe it is because they all look so good on paper and in hindsight. But how are they working for you in real time? Good luck.
I found it : the holy grail is "There is no holy grail" , anyone tells u that there is a holy grail setup or system then he is not making money , you need a few years of experience , that's it , but for a starter here is 2 tips : trade small , don't use fixed arbitrary stops ....
Yea, they are rather to make you not lose much, than to make money directly. P. S. I use small arbitrary stops very often.
my best trend trading system uses a fixed arbitrary stop, but the drawdown makes life really not worth living. I don't know if over time it makes money, but I know if I trade it long enough I will probably die before I find out. I learned the system from a guy who scalped ES for one point and never used a stop until he finally (after making a small fortune) got wiped out. I just did the opposite. I always had a stop and no target. And just unllike him, I finally made some money after first losing a small fortune (and who knows how many days off my life expectancy.)
Yes, I also always have a hard stop-loss in place and no target (there is TP order, but it is quite far by default). It is because sometimes price just shoots in some direction and I don't want to limit my profits (home runs happen more often than many people think), but never want to hold a losing trade, so generally prefer it not go against me at all, but usually give it a little noise margin (6-7 pips by default on average).
http://bit.ly/ihbRgV By far this is the holy grail. This is not a joke. I have talked to this guy (the author) and he is actually doing experiements. If I understood well a large fund asked him to do them exclusively for them. He told me he is thinking about it.
I can predict the future with astonishing accuracy. I see a world where I will need more money than I have now. That is why I am devoting all my talent and gifts to predicting what the Markets will do. I'll let you know how it goes.