Have you found the holy grail? How about you give me just one setup?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by blowingup2012, Mar 10, 2012.

  1. BSAM

    BSAM

    Well said, Red.
    I got one of those myself.
    Works very well.
     
    #11     Mar 10, 2012
  2. Thanks, but I guarantee you he will not understand that profound statement.
     
    #12     Mar 10, 2012
  3. xiaodre

    xiaodre

    Look at DBPheonix's open range breakout in the archives, or any other opening range breakout that is published out there on the web. There's a million of them. It's one of the easiest setups to trade. The rules are straightforward. You should be able to follow them without any trouble.

    Or you could subscribe to the acd method thread and read it. Acd method is based on an opening range, or a previous range...
     
    #13     Mar 10, 2012
  4. Handle123

    Handle123

    Actually, mine has defined rules for entry, but between the exits and nuances which are over 40 rules of money management, I don't see the point of showing anyone. Plus, why would I want others to even get in where I am getting in, so I can then compete with even more traders for my price?

    There are many that are incredible at trading discretionary, but I am not it, I have pretty good idea of what ES/S&P500 will do after I get in, but that is based on over two decades of trading this market and hundreds of tests. And yes, my version of "Holy Grail" can be traded on intraday, hourly, daily bars, so very robust.

    But just the question alone shows why 95% lose at this game, inexperienced want setups of entries and the entries although nice to get in well is but 5% of the method, the 95% is what you have to learn about the "signal" itself and what to look for after you are already in the trade. Just because you have a signal, that doesn't mean you should take that signal, so what are reasons not to take a signal? Take a ten day average of the day session range, so when a signal comes up near the extreme of this average, I consider it a more riskier trade and will decrease contract size and lock in one tic faster than a trade in the mid range of the average. Also, if at near extreme of the range, and depending on nuances of finding reversals or "turns" of trend, which can be divergences using indicators, trendlines on either day session or 24 hour 60 minute charts or in Price Action smaller price differences when breaking most recent pivots which can look like "rounding" on the chart, I can wait for a Secondary testing of the extreme to make a logical place to do counter-trend trade, often times this "Secondary" will be the right shoulder of a H&S pattern. By waiting to see about this Secondary and going against the trend, want to risk less and get to plus one tic faster.

    Looking at Friday's chart, much of the day was in chop, trend traders are not making money but take little losses, but if you identify, almost any reasonable EMA is cutting through middle of bars, HOD was not broken and pivot low at 10:30cdt hold fast all of the lunch time, - buy lows and risk 4 tics, reverse at logical highs(previous pivots), no brainer trades, chop is my friend. Best to stop doing them after 1:30CDT.

    By studying Price Action and do a "Brainstorm" of ideas of all the reasons of NOT taking a signal can eliminate 1-2 sure losses a day. Think about it, if you do not take 1-2 losing trades, would that be a good difference to getting profitable?
     
    #14     Mar 10, 2012
  5. astrology if you like 80+ % odds..
     
    #15     Mar 10, 2012
  6. #16     Mar 10, 2012
  7. Like what I did tonight?

    I added a combo of two of my core systems that whenever they are both in synch, put on an extra 2, and the effect this had on my strategy's backtest was to risk 1 basis point more drawdown for an 82% increase in profit.

    Is this good risk reward?

    same:same, 1 measely extra basis point 0.01% of dd: 82% higher profit?
     
    #17     Mar 10, 2012
  8. heres a set up I often recommend


    Long walk

    Short Pier

    Here, I even got a chart for you

    [​IMG]
     
    #18     Mar 10, 2012
  9. One could post a profitable method on the front page of the newspaper and 95% would still mess it up.
     
    #19     Mar 11, 2012
  10. cornix

    cornix

    #20     Mar 11, 2012