Yes, I did notice how the NQ has been a bit more whacked than the two other majors in movement. But the whack was there. The real problem I am having with this "percentage-move" shit is that for traders, it is not the percentage move that matters, it is the number of points. I was going to post some more detailed comparison charts about it, but everyone can do the research themselves... Here's how many points the NQ lost during the 50% crash in 2008... Just over a thousand... Here's how many points NQ lost in the Feb correction of 10%...Just nearly a thousand... So 30 years ago, a 1000 point-drop was a 50% crash. Sure. But today, it is a 10% correction. This is assuming the point values on NQ futures remain the same, and have been as they are today since the NQ future was first open for trading. As such, a trader may be able to handle a 50% crash when a 50% drop meant the price moves only 1,000 points down. But these days, a 50% crash in NQ would mean ~3,750 points, which is ~75 grand, not just 20 grand for the 1,000 point drops of 30 years ago. Oh, and notice something else about the comparisons... How long did it take the first chart to recover it's losses? 4 years. How long did it take this year? 4 months. WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The hidden bear market of 2014-16: - S&P 500 - Median stock -25%, ~ 80% of stocks were below their 200 dma - Russell 2000 -27% - Japanese Stocks -29% - Dow Jones Transportation Average -32% - Emerging Market stocks -40% - Chinese stocks -49% - Small Cap Biotech -51% - Value Line 1700 -24% The average stock may have hit bear market terrotory, but no magic, arbitrary -20% for the spx, and yes FANG and saleforce hung in there. So here we are in the “longest” ever bull market, which, even if true, is not a predictor of the next “bear” market. We are in year 2 of the bull.
markets need a push to tip them over. the push is typically some sort of catalyst. Right now the economy is strong so this is more likely a simple pull back. If impeachment occurs, tech gets heavily taxed, trade wars escalate in a crazy fashion, etc... then we've got our push. Trump seems to think he can bump the market and has linked the markets performance to his presidency. Not saying it is true, but he'll likely do his best to keep it from crashing... I don't think he is the reason the market is up but he seems to tweet that it is...
Trump would like the US markets to remain elevated until after the mid terms. Then, stay elevated until 2020 election. Will just have to see.
Even if you're right, I can't short the biggest stock market index in the world when its price is above the 50EMA and the 50EMA is sloping upwards.