Have the Algo's accomplished this?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Ticktaker, Aug 18, 2010.

  1. Removing any and all deemed inefficiencies in the electronic markets...specifically futures? Long bid/short offer, free look, edge, etc...have been wiped out by all accounts according to the majority of people I have recently spoken to who for the most part were incredibly profitable 5+ years ago.

    Many successful futures "prop shops" that I knew of in Chicago have closed their doors. Many successful traders that I know have moved on to new ventures or are struggling mightily to continue their trading careers.

    "The Eurex Flipper" aka "The Worlds Most Successful Trader" aka Paul Rotter has alluded to the lack of opportunity being directly linked to algo's.

    Have algo's removed an edge from the futures markets? If not, have they made a severe and significant impact on a large percentage of previously profitable traders?

    Thoughts and opinions are appreciated.
  2. NoDoji


    What are you saying has changed, specifically? Price still goes up and down every day, every week, every month, and the swings are more significant in the past 4 years than in the 3 years before that.
  3. I don't think so. If you look the Dax futures as an example, it trends much the same as it did 7 or 8 years ago. You still get nice intraday trends of 30 - 70 points and multi day trends of 3 to 5 days, offering 200 plus point opportunities. As well as the occasional intraday trend reversal once the US market opens. There are plenty of opportunities to profit.

    If anything, I suspect that increasing in trading volume have increased short term volatility, which provides more opportunities.
  4. Ticktaker, and others

    In your opinion, is there a date (a month, or a year) that divides "BEFORE" and "AFTER" for these changes?


  5. This is a logical fallacy. It may just be that their edge expired. In the markets you have to constantly look for a new edge. A typical edge will last no more than 1 and 1/2 year on the average. Of course, the mean life of an edge has a distribution and some may take longer than others to expire. During that time the market players will catch up with you, especially your broker and his friends, the people that are conected to the backdoor that is opened in your computer and others, many others, including maybe your own girlfriend and your friend who sees her secretly but you do not know that. Just kidding of course:)

    Do you have an open PC backdoor. This website may be able to help you


  6. It used to be that way many moons ago back home, but now most men are not getting any.
  7. The new tools women can buy from the internet for same day delivery have diminished the ability of many men to get any.
  8. The answer is definitely YES. I dont know whether this is due to algos or not and I can only speak for stocks, but what we know as scalping is definitely gone.

    Now there are many definitions of scalping, but the prop firm version as those who ever spent time in a traditional prop firm will know which is based on L2 is just not in existence anymore. The flashing island and arcas are now gone, programs which rapidly populate the bid and offer are no longer there, programs which revolve at certain levels i dont see much anymore and even programs which would trigger at certain price levels as you walk the bid up or offer down, nope not there. In this sphere, its not the game has changed, it is there is NO game anymore.

    When i scan through ET, some people like NoDoji still seem to be doing well, but the thing is this the turnover is very low if we trade positionally like them, which unfortunately is what I am doing now.

    You can make something like what 5-10 trades a day using that kind of strat, whereas in the past I would do something like 500-800 trades a day and there is a limit to how much liquidity one can take at any point in time. I SUPPOSE you can still scalp the mega caps, but it is not easy to read the L2 on thick shit like that. As usual getting in, not that hard, getting out is the hard part.

    Anyway most of the guys i know, yeah they have left the game. I dont know if it will ever come back. Are algos to blame? I dont know because I dont even see much algos anymore in the mid small space cap.
  9. Thank you for your input, MohdSalleh. This is along the lines of what I'm getting at. NoDoji, of course markets will fluctuate in the long term...I'm speaking of intra-day scalping with timeframes as short as less than one second. I touched on this when I said being long the bid or short the offer has virtually dissipated.

  10. But these same tools have a prehistoric wide girth, thereby causing women, when they finally offer a freebie to the desperate husband, to drive the screws in harder with the instantaneous killer, "Is it in yet?"
    #10     Aug 18, 2010