Has the strategy stopped working or is it to reaching a new max drawdown

Discussion in 'Trading' started by rvsw, Dec 1, 2019.

  1. ironchef

    ironchef

    Fooled by randomness:

    1. Your strategy worked in the past 1 1/2 years just by chance, or,

    2. Your strategy is indeed working in the 1 1/2 years, but probability messed you up lately with a string of losses. If so, eventually it will turn to a string of wins.

    3. The herd found out about your winning strategy and all crowded into it making it no longer effective.

    How do you know which is real?

    My thinking is 5 yrs backtest and 1 1/2 years walked forward are just not long enough periods for verifying it to be a winning strategy. If you believe you truly have an edge, you should have the conviction to stick it out a few more years to find out.
     
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2019
    #11     Dec 2, 2019
  2. TommyR

    TommyR

    definitely 'overcrowding' . 100%.
     
    #12     Dec 2, 2019
  3. TommyR

    TommyR

    that strategy couldnt take more than about 50k so you may be responsible for the overcrowding.
     
    #13     Dec 2, 2019
  4. You are not giving enough information to really tell. But the few comments already mention the very obvious mistkes.
     
    #14     Dec 10, 2019
  5. I don't agree. either the market is driven by the same rules or not.

    Greed

    Fear
     
    #15     Dec 10, 2019
  6. Which comes back to bad testing. If your software does not have any option to consider it, you should consider moving on to a software that does.
    But who really things thepast 5 years are representative for the fear/greed ratio in the market?
     
    #16     Dec 10, 2019