Agree, thats what I have been trying to say. How can something that lasted for more than 5 years and create such incredible wealth turn down and only last a few months before the talking heads come in and start saying the bottom is in. There is no way a bottom could have formed so quickly. Yes there may be a bump where houses might see a gain here or there somewhere in the country, but the overall national avg should continue to drop. I dont know why some of these analysts predict the housing area getting better after it just had 100% gains in less than 5 years. A pullback is imminent. I probably see housing dropping to 2001-2003 levels, probably wont see a pickup until 2009-2010. The homebuilders still have many, many, many houses and condos they still have to unload. 2-3% drop by the end os 2006 10-15% drop in housing prices by the end of 2007 25% drop in homebuilding stocks within the next 12-18 months.....
cnbc has said the worst is over...i have heard that and thought it sounds just like 2000 all over again....they claimed the bottom was in on the markets many, many times back in 2000 while the markets still fell to new lows.
some of the homebuilders are at a crucial point right now, just below their average. if tol breaks clean of 30, and that's a big IF, it could run up well.
I was just thinking the same thing. Everyday, starting in spring of 2000, CNBC had analysts on saying "Now is the time to buy". That went on all the way until the lows of 2002, and then CNBC and some of the analysts STARTED turning bearish!!! LOL.
i saw alot of "analysts" on the financial networks back in June and july being very bearish on the markets, now I would say about 90%+ are bullish, only bear I follow is Peter Schiff, his points are very accurate, hes on cnbc about once a month.
Seems almost the whole world is short and/or bearish on housing here. IMHO when everyone leans one way the boat flips over. :eek: I am already long a couple of homebuilders and a building materials supplier. Likely add a couple more next week depending on the market. This does not mean I'm long term bullish on housing, cuz I don't care long term. I'm a trader, not a buy-and-hold investor. I'll play it either way. My house is paid for and its not an issue for me. Its price will stay relative to the other houses in the area.
I think those calling for a prolonged RE downturn grossly underestimate Fed paper money printing ability...
what will be resolved by printing more money? you probably don't understand how economics works. Printing money to fuel prices will just ruin everything. And it will not save housing from collapse Do you know what happens when goverment starts unlimited money printing? Try to make a tour to Zimbabwe