Why is a recession market a bad thing for a trader. You really meant to say it is a bad thing for buy and go long stock investors like yourself. Sharp dropping down days and increased volatility only means more trading opportunities for futures and stock daytraders and spreaders. So if the market starts dropping hard, then pick long and hold investors like yourself will suffer. The fact that you claim all of us will suffer further supports the narrow world in which you trade.... Many would love to see some vols come back to the market like in 2001 and 2002....
"...I think some of you guys will change your tune if low and behold an ugly recession rears its head. You will be smacking yourself trying to get a real job. " - eagle488 - Having a job provides security, but if you think you you have what it takes to build a better dream then trade, no one is stopping you. When in times of need try to trade Forex, you can go both ways up or down. And don't forget, bulls make money, bears aslo make money. It takes guts to be rich, and it takes a strong mind to be independent.
"You seemingly assume that traders only make money in bull markets from your citing 1996-1999 and post 2003. Most any trader who does this for a living plays both ways, long and short. There's plenty of money to be made on the short side, and opportunities for shorting exist every day." *** Of course there is shorting. However, in my opinion, handling a short trade is harder and riskier then a long trade. I hardly short any stocks and would prefer to just sit it out on the sidelines until I can establish an uptrend. There are unpredictable events and whipsaws that occur with downwardly trending stocks. For example, when a stock goes down far enough, another entity can simply step in and buyout the entire company for a large premium. Its happened many times this year with different stocks. Besides buyouts, there are other unpleasant surprises as well. I would like to point out RIMM. Looking back at 2000, there were some obvious short plays, but that may never come again in our lifetime. The market was clearly bloated. However, the market today isnt so clearly predictable as those who attempted to short RIMM can raise their hands and swear to. Its not that I am naive, actually, just the opposite. My trading strategy of longing stocks is based upon experience. Its not that I am naive, its that you have not experienced one of these big blowups where you shorted a stock and came out losing more then what you put in. ** "Then you imply that trading is "not a lot of work". Again, you don't apparently understand that traders, who trade for a living, do in fact, put in a lot of time and effort." Oh no, I never implied that at all. I suggest you go back and read my twisted English. However, since you decided to visit the topic. If you believe what you are doing is "work", then you obviously dont enjoy what you do. I can listen to Bloomberg all day long. I can study a chart all day long. You wont hear me complaining. Im sorry that you consider what you do as "work". I on the other hand feel exhilerated and challenged. I dont feel like this is "work". ** "Last, you suggest one should start trading when the market hits a bottom. I've been at this full time for over 10 years and I have no clue as to when the market is at a top or bottom. All I care about is enough volatility in enough stocks to provide opportunities for making money." It always seems obvious to me when the market is at a bottom in these silly technical charts. Maybe you should take a look at them sometime... If you cant tell when the bottom or the top is, then how do you know when to long or short? Just getting lucky? By the way, Im not impressed at all that you got lucky shorting a $100 stock down to a $1. Maybe you should take that bravado to the Yahoo message boards.
But you won't. No more fractions, no more bullets, no more easy market shorts, no more easy Level II and Open Book reading. No more tape to read either, it's mostly computers fighting for pennies. Onlyone gimmick left out there and even that one has been milked by the Canadians. You do not want to see the recession market (probably won't). It's a slow grind down with low volatility, the computers will make sure of that. On the upside, at least you have the buy mania on your side and slow steady trends. The intraday game is the last place you want to be. Just for one simple reason: Merger & buyout mania.
Trading is work .. at least for anyone who does it full time. Not much different than any corporate job where one has to put forth effort. It's not a game, as many wanna-be traders seem to think. And I greatly enjoy trading ... the freedom is the best part. Again, you can't comprehend my previous post apparently. I have profit targets for any trade, short or long. So that's how I know when to exit a trade. It's called having a trading plan, having discipline and not trading by the seat of your pants. And I didn't get "lucky" with the VTSS short or any others I shorted back in 2000 & 2001. It was obvious as can be that the market was so incredibly overbought (NASDAQ at 5000) that shorting was the best and highest probability option. FYI - the NASDAQ was up like 87% in 1999. Only naive people, or those who thought the market only went one way (i.e. up) stayed long. I merely pointed out that short to show one can make a lot of money on the short side. Playing only "long" clearly limits ones opportunity. Oh yeah, the reason I've not blown up is that I have discipline, a business plan and take losses when necessary. And one doesn't need to know tops/bottoms to know when to go long/short. I play both sides some days. Obviously you don't trade for a living ... your posts show a lack of understanding of some basic aspects. The assertion that one needs $500K to make it says a lot about your knowledge.