Has Corn Yield Already Been Lost? ( Friday 06/15/2012 ).

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by kanellop, Jun 22, 2012.

  1. kanellop


    Hello to All.

    Exist the following News:

    http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com...&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc37ec102e0137f17d1a8f003e .


    Friday 06/15/2012

    Has Corn Yield Already Been Lost?

    There is no doubt that very warm and dry conditions in many crop areas this season--almost the entire southern 2/3 of the Corn Belt prior to rains in Nebraska, Kansas and Iowa Thursday June 14 and still in the eastern and southern Corn Belt going into this weekend--have given many producers and traders the jitters regarding yield prospects. The latest calamity to affect corn stands was Rootless Corn Syndrome this late spring/early summer (an issue that I for one was not familiar with).

    And in fact, some discussion has apparently already been put out in the tone of ag conversation to the effect that yield has been damaged even at this date (mid June) to such a degree that the much-talked-about USDA 166 bushels per acre national corn yield (a new record if it happens) is a pipe dream and will not happen. Such reduction is "out there" with these percentage of planted acreage affected: Iowa 30-33%; Illinois 35-37%; Missouri 40-43%; and Nebraska 25-28%.

    But, is this type of impact already dialed in? I traded e-mails with Iowa State University agronomist Roger Elmore about this question and her's what he had to say:

    "It is way too soon to tell the impact of the current and earlier conditions on yield. I ran a model last week on one location near Ames that showed yield not yet affected by what the crop has been through. So, the problems we’ve seen already, seedling blights, ‘rootless’ corn, side-wall compaction, (and poor stands the replants associated with those) and now Goss’s wilt to date have affected yield potential more than dry conditions in Iowa. The true impact will start to be evident at flowering."

    We will of course have to see how things turn out. But it appears that yield has likely not been affected--as yet.


    Twitter-- @BAndersonDTN

    Posted at 1:52PM CDT 06/15/12 by Bryce Anderson


    Into there exist right now 15 Comments.

    2 of them are too important with my small opinion.

    These are:

    a) Dr. Davidson wrote acouple years ago how yield potential was affected on a daily basis. The government is not in the guessing business and is therefore unable to publish actual and timely data. Since planting was so far ahead this spring, the gov data will seem even slower to react than it did last year when all the crop tour data destroyed USDA's pipedream on yield. Model, schmodel..... Rain makes grain.

    Posted by Paul Beiser at 4:22AM CDT 06/18/12

    b) I am a professional farm manager in central Illinois. 80% of our crop has been under some stress within the past 30 days. Years ago, I spent some time managing farms in the southeast in southwest Georgia and north Florida. All of the corn we grew there was under Center pivot irrigation. One thing I learned from the agronomists and plant breeders who worked with corn at the universities in Georgia and Florida about corn production is that: When corn is stressed, there is damage that it does not recover from. Beans can recover some, but when the corn yield prospect is "nicked" that portion of the potential is gone. With minor exceptions, I believe out "top end" is gone. We have corn tasseling at 4 1/2 to 6 feet tall---which means we are more fortunate that other areas. We had no subsoil moisture in April--even down to six feet deep--1.3 inches of rain in early May--about two tenths a couple of times and about four tenths this weekend.

    Posted by ernest moody at 7:51AM CDT 06/18/12

    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.
  2. emg


    Don't forget, Farmers are into HIGH TECH. High tech GPS and high tech sprinkers, high tech.
  3. emg



    GPS will be able to detect which part of the field needs water and so on. More high tech, easier farming gets