Has Buffet Lost His Touch?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Brandonf, May 28, 2005.

  1. Brandonf

    Brandonf ET Sponsor

    First off I do not want this to come across as disrespectfull because Buffet is one of my investment idols. I think his annual report for BRK is great and the annual meeting is worth owning a few shares of BRK for. However, has he lost his touch? He missed the entire up move in tech, he got short the dollar right as it bottomed and now he is moving big into oil. It almost seems that having missed the tech boom he is chasing his tail trying to find the "next big thing". Next thing we are probably going to hear is that he is buying condo's in NYC and Florida.

  2. Tradefox


    The funny thing about trading is that every trader has his own style and even two traders going the exact opposite direction can BOTH make money.

    It's my opinion that you should never judge a trader on your timeframe.

    Brandonf you should know this ... :p

    Buffet was here before you where born and he will be here long after your trading days are done.
  3. trader99



    Maybe.. But he did NOT short the dollar at the bottom. He shorted the dollar a few years BACK. He made over $1.3B on the dollar short. And this is a pullback for him. For all we know, he already exited or cover part of the position.

    Where does it say he's moving into oil? I think he bought a utilities company recently.

    And there's no way he's buying condos in NYC and Florida. He just SOLD his home in Laguna Beach for $3.5M. He's cashing out of RE.

    He has like $38B in cash. It's hard to find opportunities to put all that money to work.

    But overall, he's still beats every money manager/hfs /quants/etc hands down.

    Sure, he has made some mistakes. Who hasn't?
  4. Brandonf

    Brandonf ET Sponsor

    Well bloody hell the first two people got it!

  5. toc


    Let me tell you, Buffet will be eventually proven right on Dollar, right now is just a pull back due to 7 Fed Rate hikes, as soon as inflation fears kick in, dollar has lost another 20%.

    Oil: commodity cycles last anywhere from 15 to 24 years according to Jim Rodgers. Last one started in 2000, so 10 more years atleast for oil to keep going.

    Buffet was not a big fan of technology stocks to begin with, he is old school old economy investor mostly.

    Buffet was very right one thing that I thought was nonsense: Nuclear Proliferation was his biggest concern. Now Rouge nations are getting them and there is 3 times the risk that some rouge colonel in their army musters enough support and takes power and in the process nukes fall in hand of fanatics. However, Buffet can only warn and not fight fanatics in White House who encourage nukes in the hands of temporary allies and threaten nukes on others. Guess in this round world, the ball eventually comes back to hit you.....which I hope not 'cause times are tough but do not want them to go worse.
  6. trader99


    :confused: :confused: :confused:

    I don't get what that sentence means...
  7. I could put it to work for him! :D

  8. Not so, bro.

    I trade the USD daily and "inflation fears" blow in and out of the market daily.

    They are not something that is going to move the USD down 20% in the remotest chance. It doesn't work that way with "inflation fears."

    Nice try but thou speakest of that which thou knowest little of (regarding the dollar). :D

  9. toc


    Scalper Dude!

    It seems you are long on the dollar and that's why my comments hit you right below the nuts.

    20% erosion will not be in one day but over time just like dollar has corrected roughly 33% in the last few years. I do not trade currencies so what effects them hard or soft in day trading or even short term position trading is not my brew.
  10. m22au


    Just what Tradefox said .... his timeframe is probably longer than yours. It's too early to say whether not not Buffett "got short the dollar right as it bottomed". You may be correct, but we'll only find that out in 5 years' time.

    You're probably reading too much into it by guessing that he is 'chasing the next big thing' - as you should know Buffett ignored the tech sector because it is not how he invests. He invests in undervalued assets - not just buying something because it is going up.

    #10     May 28, 2005