Thanks for your reply. As you suggest, 6 months from now, when I look at your reply, hopefully the answers will present themselves. As of right now, half of it is over my head. I do really appreciate the help though.
To wrap up these comments about making money. I should probably chat about what failsafe means in trading. Failsafe comes from the war industry and in particular the risks of weaponry that deals with effeciency and effectiveness, i. e., making sure the details are taken care of in fission and fusion. Molecules are either taken apart (big ones) or assembled (small ones). Once a process is begum it comes to its natural consequences. such bombing has become rare since both sides lose ultimately. Recently in Japan, nature challenged nuclear since nuclear was built in the wrong place. Now there are long term consequences. "Has anyone thought bout how much you SHOULD make?" is naively asked. As can be easily seen the trader's operating point can be moved to any desired level and effective and efficient results become unlimited since the zero sum game does not exist. The system of nature is built around the periodic table. The system of the market's operation is built around its parts or elements. Science is used along with the queen of sciences, mathmatics) to monitor and analysis the market. Over the last 55 years, I have contributed to the science and the analysis approaches. The result is that paradigm theory works, so does logic theory and the market is composed of interlocking fractals. the algebra of markets is dictated by the market. This Algebra is a recent addition to the support of science via Maths. A system results. Its elements (the molecular equivalent) are fewer han the periodic table. the molecular equivalents are composed of 21 items distribute about equally between the independent variable (volume, 11 items (smallest sequences)) and the dependent variable (price, 10 items (smallest formation)) I iterjected a failsafe model into price to increase effectiveness and efficiency and, at the same time move farther away from the concept of losses. A sub fractal rtl is always drawn when possible. If not possible then ONLY a BM is put in place. Volume events are placed when either failsafe is triggered. If a BookMark(BM) is penetrated a reversal occurs on volume. If an rtl is crossed and a volume T1 is present in the trend, then a reversal occurs. On the table shown, separate rows appear on the yellow, mustard, orange and red panels for the BO, T1 and the BM, REV. glance at the yellow panel of Set A type trends. Most of the pairs in the Table come from the use of routine turns. 35 of these turns are named by the referential End Effect. EE's fall in 10 bands and each element is defined uniquely in the market's algebra. thus the eight panels of the Table have a lot of pairs composted of the elements found in the system of the market's operation. So market thoery is in its infancy as a consequence of no scientists studying market theory to any extent. the current depression will probably create some scientific interest. As an older scientist I have run the gauntlet of scientifically supported work. relative to other ET members, I have been singled out by the NSF as "A Program of the Year". ford foundation also awared us a grant to begin their funding efforts on "whats wrong out there". each of these grants initiated the sceintific research on what became known as the "environment". I had taught "environmental mathematics many years before that and the name meant economics, finance and econometrics systemically speaking. At the limit of capacity of stock trading, my best day has been 17 points net on 100,000 shares of one stream of capital as a ono professional (As defined by NFA.). There are 56 element in the complete system of the market's operation.
I would say that MOST of them are over your head, and my head too. I don't know why you have so much concern about the performance of SSR or similar method during the Second Depression JH has been trying to project and amend since 2006. I suggest that you look at the fundamental of your SSR method again. There are 197 industry groups. During bad times, NOT all of the groups will be softies; some will strive. SSR is slightly different from PVT method. Pick the industry groups ranked by IBD as A+, A or A- in the Industry Group RS (A+ to E). These are the top 24% in terms of price performance. We are talking about nearly 50 industry groups NOT in the red in terms of price performance! Then, you can tighten your selection by whatever criterion you like. Use leaders of the leading industry groups as your leading indicator to trade second-tier stocks in the leading industry groups, blah blah blah.... Do not bring in those Set A B C D etc to mess up your method.
Thank you for your fundamentals focussed commentary. for the benefit of all, I suggest looking at the eight panels of the table. Attached are the Set C and Set D four panels
From an ES viewpoint here is the current scene using the Table's 8 panels. Paddler has astrong viewpoint for following qualit traditions. I was making a point with regard to the current messiness in most explanations of how to judge a lot of market formations. For me eliminating any uncertainties is a must. the market has an operating modus. I feel the market is always correct. So I stay current on the forming bar by always knowing that I know.
I appreciate the reply. I know what you mean with just using stuff that helps and not suing stuff that can mess up something working. I am always trying to improve. I was pretty much asking how to enter on Pt1s rather than Pt3s of new IT long trends. In the end, entering on pt 3s are working just fine for me and given I cant watch every tick of the market, probably more conducive to my personality. I was just wondering if i was getting lucky do to the overall market being a bull compared to when we enter a bear market.....guess Ill just have to trade through one and see how it treats me.
Qualifying type trading is good all the time. Quant type trading falters in Bear markets. Here is how the trend sets changed after the last C turn. I'll try to help you move over to reversals (pt1 turns by differentiating from the pt3's (retraces). Stay on daily charts for SSR.
I just look at what my bots make, then I look at what fraction of the liquidity I participate in. Then it is simple arithmetic. There are only three variables in trading success imo: 1) A consistantly profitable system. 2) The liquidity to execute that system. 3) The confidence to hit hard when the odds are in your favor. The discipline to scale back when things seem wrong. Theorem: The technological know-how to automate 1. This is important to me since my psychology would not allow me to sit in front of a computer vegitating. In fact, if you start your search with these three things as axiomatic, you can work your way backwards to a profitable system that fits your psychology. Really, since most people have never seen a profitable system, the hardest part is #3. I can tell you that even though I have 1, 2, and 3, it is amazing how much of my skill as a programmer I needed in order to make it work. Worse, I needed knowledge of the mathematical sciences to make it work (if I had access to institutional order flow - this affects 2 above, this is less true). Even now, I still struggle to improve it, without making it worse. It is frightening to me when I see people aimlessly trying to succeed trading as a substitute for steady income. Once you have walked down this path, you realize just how hard it is. The greatest chance of success from trading is to not need the income from it, even if you have 1,2, 3 above! Based on this criteria, I see no reason why I shouldn't be making $500,000 year from just trading, with an relatively painless extrapolation to $20M a year. But it is pointless to talk about it until I have walked THAT path.