Harvard says No housing crash

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/6f2df4b8-fa3e-11da-b7ff-0000779e2340.html

Housing boom will not end in a crash, says Harvard
By Christopher Swann in Washington
Published: June 12 2006 22:19 | Last updated: June 12 2006 22:19

“Although housing prices are stretched, it is hard to see the catalyst for a crisis in the market,” says Nicolas Retsinas, director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard. “The overvaluation looks pretty well balanced by longer term supports for house prices, so we may just see a few years with little action. Houses will revert to being something to live in rather than money makers.”

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Did he say something about a permanent plateu?

 

I once read a Harvard study written back in 97 that prognosticated that the U.S. housing price will go down by half by the year 2007 a la Japan in the 90s.

 

ah, well that settles it then. everybody can stop panicing now. whew.

 

The defunct Harvard Economic Society would be proud ...

“A severe depression like that of 1920-21 is outside the range of probability.” (In a report to its subscribers, November 1929)

 

ha. give em a break, they didn't have computers back then to run more thorough analysis. On the other hand, isn't it amazing that such a large part of the world of physics is still based off the fundamentals of Einsteins work in the same period, of course, without the aid of computers ??

 

Yeah, I guess that is a consequence of the "infancy" of social sciences compared to others like physics... anyway I'm no big fan of excessive determinism when applied to human nature...God gave us guts for a reason

 

Very interesting comparison....rolling bubble headed our way?