When I was a kid, I would read my dad's Barrons and occasional Harry Schultz newsletter. I know, that's not normal - but hey, the Commodore 64 didn't quite do it for me. Anyway, Harry Schultz called the 2008 stock collapse/credit crisis -though most of us here were just waiting for it to happen; not exactly a surprise. Now he is reporting: "Some U.S. embassies worldwide are being advised to purchase massive amounts of local currencies; enough to last them a year. Some embassies are being sent enormous amounts of U.S. cash to purchase currencies from those governments, quietly. But not pound sterling. Inside the State Dept., there is a sense of sadness and foreboding that 'something' is about to happen ... within 180 days, but could be 120-150 days." Yes, yes, it's paranoid. But paranoids have enemies -- and the Crash of 2008 really did happen. HSL's suspicion: "Another FDR-style 'bank holiday' of indefinite length, perhaps soon, to let the insiders sort out the bank mess, which (despite their rosy propaganda campaign) is getting more out of their control every day. Insiders want to impose new bank rules. Widespread nationalization could result, already underway. It could also lead to a formal U.S. dollar devaluation, as FDR did by revaluing gold (and then confiscating it)." from: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/schultz-paints-bleak-picture-of-future Fun stuff to read - extreme, yes - but in this crazy world - who knows? By the way, I guess Schultz is still alive?
You need to think about the concept from Fooled From Randomness. There are over a thousand of analysts/gurus/etc. given there views on the markets on a daily/weekly/monthly/yearly basis. It is statistically almost impossible that at least x amount of those predictions were not right. Same goes for Meredith Whitney... she called out this mess. I'm sure out of the 1000+ analysts someone would get it right. It could happen by chance and not skill. We need to careful listening to these gurus. They may have been correct by luck.... and we might confuse that as skill. Then we may listen to their opinions (which may be totally wrong). No one can predict the future, and no one always has the right answers. This is chance... don't be fooled.
I agree somewhat but I also think that these analysts that called it were not that prohetic or intelligent - there wasn't that much randomness to it. It was one giant fiction based on a bubble. It's inception - August 15, 1971 - when Nixon altered Bretton Woods. Reagan put it in overdrive. Now it's over. Can you spot the secular bull market here?: Debt unwinds suck for Bulls. Maybe I'm overly pessimistic, but I think the old way of doing things is over. We are experiencing a transformational period. When the negative gurus outnumber the shills - then I'm going to be a little more bullish. But then again - does it really matter? - so long as we have volatility (and the markets remain open) - it's all good.
Nice chart. I can't predict too far into the future, so I remain a daytrader trying to scalp pennies. There are SO many variables effecting the market (thousands) that I don't think anyone can predict the future. It's likely a result of randomness... someone will be dead on with their market prediction 10 years from now. But if Mr. Buffett can lose 50% of his portfolio in one year, then there are no geniuses. This is a question I can't answer. If someone else can, then have them put their $ on their opinion... become a billionaire.
Is this how they give me my shiny new Amero? They shut down the banks? How rude. I find these conspiracies hard to digest. The part about sad people in the State Dept, is a bit much for me.