Greetings All, I am a beginning trader and people tell me that unfortunately, I am starting at a worst possible time in the market cycle. It may still work out for me since I have funds that will last me a year without touching my equity so hopefully I have time enough to learn before I start needing trading income. If I do learn by then, my other concern is if the market does not turn around by next year and it continues this choppy and narrow range that prevents traders (I am told) from making reasonable results. One thing that counters that concern is the theory of Harry Dent (author of Roaring 2000s) who believes that by tracking the baby boomers demographics and their spending cycles we are in for almost a decade of vigorous bull market. And he has written that this humongous bull should be starting just about now, in this year of 2002. So if he is right, I may be starting at the right time after all!! But if he is all wet then I am doomed. :eek: Does anyone have any opinion on the theories of this author? Cheers, lufan
I have two comments that you may find useful. Firstly; if you want to trade short term, it doesn't matter what the market does. You can make money long or short. So many people just don't get that. It's toughest in a trendless market like we've been experiencing, but it's great to learn when things are tough. Secondly; in addition to reading his books, I've heard Harry Dent speak twice. I consider myself a student of history and patterns, he has a strong argument. But it doesn't matter if he's right. If you're serious, start learning, get committed, ignore all the whiners and naysayers (there are a significant number of people who trade and become rather wealthy) who are so negative. Learn how to make money no matter what happens, and perhaps watch for the signs that Dent is correct and take appropriate action.
Harry Dent....will look good in any bull market albeit he does have support for his hypothesis...however if you want to track the market based on demographics...you can also overaly our US Market over the Nikkei The choice is yours...because the Nikkei my friend is the leading indicator for us on a technical level (strikingly similar to the Naz). However, US Economic policies and business policies are wavering into the abyss. Once thought to be the Gibralter of good business sense & honesty....the US is beginning to crack i.e. Enron, GE and a Fed that acts more as a reaction then an initiator. My 2 cents...basically Harry Dent has never treaded into this water.
lufan- I read "Roaring 2000's"...some of his ideas make sense...and his timing was perfect as far as when to put that book out(i got a free copy from an AIM funds wholesaler)....however, I don't think his writings have that much to do with being a good trader. IMO to be a good trader you need to be able to adapt to good AND bad economies and markets. I think its really a lot better to not have any opinion at all about the market. so don't wait around for the right "type of market" because there is none...you think 98-99 was good? well, it was for some, but many traders were never able to adjust to a down market...so it may have been good for then for a year..but a lot of them are gone....start your learning now..find consistent methods and you'll be able to go the long run. so if the 2000's are roaring great and if they suck..you're still ok. good luck!
fund tracking Harry Dent http://www.siliconinvestor.com/rese...me=5y&chart1=none&i0=0&i1=0&i2=0&i3=0&s=ADDAX
Greetings All, Thank you all for your comments. The basic thought that your comments leave me is positive in that a successful trader makes it due to his own skill no matter what the market is doing (and Harry Dent theories or not!). I will give that !!. I have bought about 20 books so far mainly by lurking in the Investment aisles of Barnes and Noble and Borders. Looks like a majority of them are not insightful and therefore useless to a new trader except for the following. Market Wizards and New Market Wizards, Schwager Trading for a Living, Elder Trading on Momentum, Wolff Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, Lefuevre Just bought and working on: Trading in the Zone, Douglas Master Swing Trader, Farley Cheers, lufan