Harry S. Dent, Are You Kidding Me!?

Discussion in 'Educational Resources' started by ess1096, Nov 26, 2008.

  1. ess1096


    It was actually his Bubble Boom book that I read in 2004 that started my interest in trading the markets. But in retrospect you have to admit that Harry has ZERO credibility now. And now I see that he is coming out with another book calling for a new depression??? Now I won't say that I don't agree with that prediction but after the predictions made in his last book he should just go into hiding. Instead, it will probably become a best seller and he will make the talk circuit. :confused:

    Predictions from the last book.................

    The Dow hitting 40,000 by the end of the decade
    The Nasdaq advancing at least ten times from its October 2001 lows to around 13,500, and potentially as high as 20,000 by 2009
    Another strong advance in stocks in 2005, with a significant correction into around September/October 2006
    The Great Boom resurging into its final and strongest stage in 2007, and even more fully in 2008, lasting until late 2009 to early 2010

  2. empee


    pardon if memory is in correct, but didnt he call for a crash after this final great boom?
  3. Harry does good work. I read his original book "The Great Boom Ahead" which was spot on.

    The OP's protest about Harry's forecast of a second market rally is silly. (I mean to say the OP is silly.) I haven't read Dent's latest book, but we did have an incredible bubble - only this time the bubble was in real estate, not equities. Harry can be forgiven that, in my estimation. His basic premise, that population and generational cycles drive a lot of economic phenomena is well grounded, and has almost always played out, broadly speaking, as he expects.

    He is worth reading if you are trying to stay in front of the few big trends that will punctuate markets during your trading/investing career.
  4. ess1096


    Yes he did, but he contributed it to the baby boomers retiring in huge numbers in 2009-2010. He said nothing about credit bubles and bailouts.

    OK, so he writes a book in the middle of a bull market (2004) predicting that the markets will go up? Now he is writing a book when the country is on a verge of a depression predicting a depression? Sounds like easy money being an author.

    Call me silly (OH someone already did that), but I thought the point of his last book Bubble Boom was NOT that we would have a bull market followed by a crash but that the bull market we were already in was supposed to be the mother of all bulls with all the indexes blowing past the 2000 highs, DOW 40,000 Nasdaq 13,000 to 20,000. When in reality the DOW Hardly passed it's 2000 high, the S&P put in an almost perfect double top and the Nasdaq, well the Nasdaq didn't even come close.

    Yes, Harry is a smart guy at times but he was just dead wrong in that book. Sorry.

    PS: He also predicted that the party of the US President during the bull market would win the 2008 election in a landslide. :eek:
  5. I have read both his books. The Roaring 2000's gave me the incentive to embrace the Internet as a new cottage industry and carve out a niche for consulting,education,services, etc...

    I also credit him with selling my home in 2006 Southern California and have been Leasing ever since. That was the best tax free trade of my life! Also being a trader myself and understanding parabolic growth and how to handle it.

    Dent was over optimistic on stocks based on his strong belief in logarithmic chart technicals. He did not see the shift into commodities and continued Real estate growth taking capital away from equities.

    Getting too specific on his basic premise has made him look inconsistent at time. But he is DEAD ON with his Baby Boom Theory of peak spending and then pulling back.

    His last book DID predict the US economy going in the crapper around 2009. I give the guy credit as a good Macro thinker. His micro predictions get him in trouble at times.

    The Boomers took us up and they are going to take us down big time. I firmly believe that.
  6. Read a book looking for a "tip" and you'll always be disappointed. Does that make it a bad book?

    No. It unmasks your folly.
  7. ess1096


    OK, I'll admit it, you got me Bro. In 2004 I bought Harry's book looking for a "tip". When I finished it I took out a second mortgage on my house, emptied my bank accounts and put it all into DOW 40,000 LEAPS!! They expire in 2009 and I'm worried that they might expire worthless. I was hoping that someone here would reassure me that it's OK to be married to my position because I just lack self confidence without the reassurance of anonomous ET posters with screenames from 1980's trading movies.

    Thanks for setting me straight man.
  8. I know it hurts pal, I feeel your pain.

    No thanks necessary - you are most welcome.
  9. The things he did get right were important.

    He said that 2000 wasn't the end but preceded another boom - sure he got the magnitude wrong but its not surprising.

    He also said it would end because of technology cycle and demographics. What he didn't know/consider was the debt levels that consumers in the US and rest of the World would pursue or that the bubble would be pricked before the demographics took it over the top.

    My question which I expect to see resolved over the next 5 or 10 years is: did pricking the bubble early create the conditions for an early finish? My suspicion is that the answer is: no, the demographics will become a drain as he predicted and drag this recession out into a full blown depression (after all, who's stock based retirement funds just got demolished but the baby boomers).
  10. Sponger


    Writing a book about the next great depression.....after the bloodbath that's already occurred in the financial markets, with all asset classes getting decimated....with global simultaneous recessions taking place....wow, he's going out on a limb with that depression call
    #10     Dec 5, 2008