Discussion in 'Trading' started by quin8670, Mar 29, 2007.
Is ES one of the most difficult contracts to trade? If so why? Is it because of all the bots?
If you don't like the "bots", go to a higher timeframe. ES on a daily basis, or even a 60 minute basis filters out a lot of the noise.
Whether the noise is induced by "bots" or not is another matter.
I know it's not the most popular, but, you could look into trading the YM. It follows the ES pretty closly. True, the YM has a lot less volume, but, unless your trading 30+ contracts I don't think it matters. Also, the YM allows for more entry/exit points. ie 1 pt on the ES = 10 pts on the YM.
Hope it helps!
what are you guys talking about when you say "bots" are you refering to black box trading? Is it really that powerful now in futures trading?
Will all of trading have to be done by computer systems in order to stay competitive in the future? I don't think so but I am hearing a lot of people say that.
ES should be the dream contract because of the immense liquidity.....like nothing else. Fortunately or unfortunately it is the ultimate leader and more often than not in the very short term becomes "the Tail wagging the Dog."
Oddly enough, Mr. Cramer explained it best last week when he talked about manipulation of the futures.
To me this makes YM, DAX, NQ etc easier vehicles if you consistantly observe how they are "following" or not.
Unfortunately (or again.....Fortunately)......the liquidity SUCKS if you want to do size.
Are you unable to predict? Variance a problem? If so, any forward agreement will trouble you.
ES is less trendy than than YM,ER2 or NQ (more false breakouts).
ES has a wider spread than YM,ER2 or NQ (higher transaction costs).
A few books i read used to hint that the false breakouts in the SP (big floor traded contract version of ES) were due to the floor traders playing games.
If that is the case, perhaps ES is more trendy than it was a few years ago (when the floor based SP used to lead the ES).
When they make SP full time electronic, perhaps reducing the size from 250K down to 100K, and keeping the spread to 0.1, then ES will be dead.
And the SP might be a much better instrument to trade than ES, something like a more liquid version of ER2.
But it might never happen, they might just keep ES the way it is, and never make SP full time electronic.
In my opinion, (this) is the hardest futures contract to trade. I'm disregarding contracts with puny volume; naturally they are difficult to trade as well, but the tautology "low volume contracts are difficult to trade" is not exactly brimming with news.
its all difficult.
finding the contract that suits personality is another thing.
ES is fun when it moves.
I like high volatility though.. so NQ, natural gas, rbob, Hang Seng, etc... thats my cup of tea.
personally, I have a tough time reading gold.
Timbo is closest to the truth.
Many are flat out afraid if the ES. Face it, if you can trade any of the mentioned instruments consistently then you would have no more problems trading the ES trade the ES.
Bots are nothing more than the bogeyman. Reread Edwards & Magee a few more times and you will surprise yourself. Bots have not changed trading, technical analysis is still nothing more than what the industry decides what the value of the contract is at any given moment in time. Is the price a real reflection of the real value? No it is not, but the price you see on the screen is what the trade says it is and either you follow price or you will always be a day late and a dollar behind.
false breakouts are not always as bad as many say they are, they in fact give you valuable clues to the thinking of what traders are looking for. Even breakout traders like myself know many breakouts will be false so you do not fear them. false breakouts in most cases just a reflection who wants what and or who wants to defend what. The "WHAT" is the price that is going to cause those same traders to react as they will relative to their position. Fear & greed rules the game ---not bots. What causes the guys that run the bots to react? Right a change in price, nothing else.
Have fun, do not be afraid of the bogeyman. ..
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