When I started out I went to quite a few expensive seminars, read pretty much all the books I could find - did all the things most of you guys did. Although the material presented made sense and looked quite simple somehow I had a weird feeling that something was missing. In hindsight I know that the funny feeling was that it was too easy - and my life experience taught me that if something looks too easy then it is probably a misrepresentation by the writer/presenter. If trading the markets would really be easy then nobody in his/her right mind would spend 8+ hours working for someone else to make a living. After one of these seminars I approached one of the speakers who has been making a living trading for decades and told him about my weird notion. He told me in private that my hunch was correct: It would be foolish to assume that for a few thousand bucks any successful trader would hand me the straight path to success in trading: "People who attend these seminars pay for their own laziness since anything you'll learn here is already available either much cheaper in a few books or for free on the web." Encouraged by his honesty I asked him if he would be interested in mentoring me and for how much. During the next recess this is what he told me: 1. If you are expecting that will teach you how I trade then I have to disappoint you because no matter what you think about this statement at this time you would be come my competitor and I would be an idiot creating more sophisticated competition for myself. 2. I am willing to spend one hour with you for $100,000 Dollars cash, no receipt and no guarantees given whatsoever. 3. In that one hour period I'll give you a solid understanding of 4-5 fundamental elements regarding the markets and trading. You can build your own research based on these elements and come up with a large number of ways to be consistently profitable under any and all circumstances. There are many ways to make a profit and you'll have to find the method(s) you are most comfortable with. It may take you a few months or a few years - I cannot possibly know how much time and effort you will put into this. All I am saying is that I can shave quite a few years off your path to becoming profitable - you know the price of a few years better than I would. I am a courteous person so I didn't tell him what I thought about his offer, I just told him that I'd get back to him about this - and I never did. I have been very successful both in my corporate life and in my own enterprises so I figured that if there is a way to make this trading thing work I'd find it in a few months or maybe a year max. In hindsight I should have run to the bank to get the cash out right away and handed it to him on the spot. Hell, had I known what it takes to figure those 4-5 elements out on my own I'd pay a million in cash, no receipt and no guarantees. I would have made that money back in no time but no, I had an exceptionally high IQ and I had been very successful in pretty much anything I touched before in my life so I decided that I was sharp enough, diligent enough to do it on my own and save that money. After 2-3 years of full time studies, research, trial and error (Mostly error) I decided to swallow my pride and pay him the 100K - I already lost much more than that in unearned income anyways - but he declined. I am not one who gives up something easily so I continued with my efforts and during the following few years I have discovered those 4-5 fundamental elements he was referring to back then. I have never in my life worked so many 12-14 hour days before. Many times I have been on the verge of giving it all up after all those years and just write off all that money and effort. Well, it was worth it because I have finally put the puzzle together but my God what price I paid for it! In hindsight I could have been profitable in my first year - and every year after that - had I taken his offer. We still keep in touch once in a while and he now knows that I also know everything he knows about the markets and trading. The lesson is that if you are starting out with your trading endeavor it is much easier and faster if you find a mentor and pay him well. Don't ask for audited statements and guarantees, don't try to sell him on splitting your future profits because all that will accomplish is that you will not find a taker. You'll end up doing it alone and that may take any amount of time, effort and money of course. The most important elements you need are not printed in any book, not presented on any seminar or in any web site. Decide when would you like to start making money trading and make sure you have ample savings to allow you to get there. Learning to trade will cost you time effort and money it depends on you just how much.
Thanks WillNotLose. Could I ask what you think is the yearly non-leveraged return of the guy who asked for the 100k?
Ooooooooh! It is soooooooo hard. Bruce Babcock said it best: http://www.amazon.com/Four-Cardinal...=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1280187920&sr=1-3 1. Trade with the trend 2. Cut losers short 3. Let winners run 4. Manage risk There is a fifth one. But that's what the guy wanted to charge you 100 grand for.
tradingjournals I have never asked him and he never volunteered to disclose any numbers about his results. I don't know what he trades and how often he trades. I never ask him such questions simply because that is none of my business. He has never asked me either about my methods, income or anything else specific. I have read a few threads in here that deal with VERY specific questions that sometimes receive some kind of response - and then that response gets either flamed, ridiculed or pressed for proof. From there on it is a steep slope downward as usual. When you talk to another trader it is fairly easy and quick to find out at what level of knowledge and efficiency he/she is at. Once you know that your counterpart knows trading there is no need to ask anything specific. Although I don't frequent ET a lot I have read enough posts to know that there are a few good traders with solid understanding of the trade (pardon the pun) - but not many. When we are in touch we talk about the markets and the politics affecting the markets and our future potential in general terms. The decisions of our lawmakers have the power to make changes to the very environment we traders depend on for a living and such changes are more often than not are anything but beneficial to the retail guy. I know I didn't answer your question but I hope you now understand why: I don't know.
I was going to say this earlier, as I thought this was would display a high level of trading wisdom, but alas I chose to step back and think about this topic in greater detail. After some deep thought I would say one major key is simply: Money. I know I thought when people talked about how you needed to be well capitalized when I started trading 10 years ago that they were being ridiculous (at the time people were saying 50-100K at a bare minimum just to survive), but sadly it is true. Your 1K to millionaire type of dreams should remain in the dream box for those of you who are serious about making a lifetime out of this speculation business. You need risk capital, and a lot of it if you are going to make a go. If you don't have it yet, try to learn as much as possible while getting your living expenses to a bare minimum and your income to a maximum. I can't stress enough how important it is to have not only a good grubstake, but also steady non-trading cash flow during your formative years. This may sound over simplistic and ridiculous but YOU NEED MONEY. Say you have a great ability and you could make 50% annual returns with a Sharpe of 2. None of this matters if you don't have any money to trade, and even worse you have no cash flow to protect the money you do have to trade until you are way ahead (think years) of your living expenses before going to full time speculation. Money. Discipline. Edge. Risk. Patience. Money-Management. Make your 100K checks payable to your favorite charity.
Have you noticed how NoDoji SIM traded ES and CL for months and developed a 80-90% win rate strategy and become very profitable these days trading these two instruments?