Hard Four Easy Eight

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by profitseer, Oct 5, 2002.

  1. 1. Roll the dice. If it's even go long, if it's odd go short at the market.

    2. Put in a limit and a stop for whatever the number is.

    Not sure why, but I've been hitting an awful lot of 7 point moves on the short side.

    This system can be used anytime. If you trade with Ib, they don't accept stop orders after hours, but I put them in anyway because as the president of Ib says, at least they give you a false sense of security.
  2. Quah


    IMO, this works better if you use the highest value of the two dice to decide if you are going long or short - i.e. - if you roll a 4 and 3, you go long for 7, if you roll a 5 and 2, you go short for 7.
  3. Yeah, That's what I did in the 90's and it worked fine, but then around the turn of the century, it seemed to have better results just going short on any seven.
  4. sherif24


    So you set symmetric stops, e.g. 7 points up/down?
  5. What I've posted here is the public system. It wouldn't be prudent for me to suggest anyone use this system without stops.
    My philosophy is, no matter which way the trade goes, I will always get what I need.

    As long as you know you need a profit, there is no reason to use stops. If for any reason you suspect you may need a loss, then yes, symetrical stops are as good as any.

    If you backtest the system, you will get the results you need.
  6. sherif24


    I think I see. I misunderstood your first post I guess. The thing I'm having trouble with is, let's just say the trade goes straight against you and you're never 'in the money' from the get go...where do you exit? In other words, you've decided you need a profit on the trade, but you are never given that opportunity, just for argument's sake
  7. Well, I suppose that's possible for arguments sake. I've never really thought about it. I think it would be impossible to make money with any system if you were thinking about it going against you.
  8. sherif24


    Just trying to understand, not knocking...FWIW I think something like this is totally viable, even though i get a feeling others would be quick to discount it. It's all in the conviction, IMO.
  9. The problem is, it gets very boring, because after you roll the dice, you already know where your profit is going to be.

    I've tried incorporating trailing stops. But most of the time I get stopped out before the original profit objective is even reached. Or worse yet, the profit is reached and then it pulls back and my trailing stop gets hit. (But one time I made more money than I would have by taking the profit.)

    Although the system is profitable, I'm working on a way to fix it's one serious flaw which is that it often leaves a lot of money on the table. Kind of hurts to take a profit and then see the market take off without you.
  10. nitro


    Why not just roll the dice again when the profit objective is hit and take the opposite rules, that is, odd 7 go long, even 7 go short, but this time, half the profit target and half the stop loss of the die. Now you have captured the likely coil that is coming...then, if profit target or stop loss is hit on this "second" trade, go back to rule original rule - this will get you back into the "trend" of the die...

    #10     Oct 6, 2002