Only a gambler would take that bet at this moment. 21.5, not 20.5? And an open time table. LOL And I will point out a 7.5% move, even if down, would have next to nothing to do with the "fundamentals" that you deem so meritorious. But most important, a (mere)1% to 2% up move from here, put a different way, less than Dow 20.5, would create a losing trade for the OP.
Well, betting is pretty much synonymous to the word gambling right? Saying "only a gambler would take this bet"...is not going to nominate you for a wordsmith award. And what exactly would a 7.5% move have to with... in your opinion? A comet hitting the earth? I mean dude, you make no sense. And 20K plus 1500 points is 21,500 last I checked. Minus 1500 is 18,500. So a fair bet in your opinion would be for me to say it will see 18.5 before 20.5. Now I'm not an odds maker... but would that not indeed imply a bias in favor of the downside? Hmmmm. I thought you were going "happy holidays anyway". Come back when you can up the intellectual thought process behind your posts. "And I will point out a 7.5% move, even if down, would have next to nothing to do with the "fundamentals" that you deem so meritorious." That one might get you an award on the annual cruise I love it. .......Beware those comets.
A 7.5% move, if down, would be a simple retracement. Some people might call it profit taking. If up, it's just more upside to the existing move, trend, trump rally, whatever you want to call it. To me, it's all just trading opportunities, up AND/OR down. To others here on ET 7.5% either way, is the big bang, as you've proven with your black swan comet mindset. 19.5 and 20.5 might have had some takers, without a bookie bias. But you're too gung ho on being a smart ass. Happy Holidays anyway!
10% is defined as a correction. Before August of 2015, we went three years without a correction. So 7.5 percent, while not being the end of the world... is still 7.5% If you are willing to accept that is going to happen.... would you not be foolish to pull your cash OUT of the market? "Oh sure... 7.5% loss in my portfolio is normal...its a retracement". And explain to me... how ANYONE can think fundamentals don't apply to the overall indexes? What year were you born and on which friggin planet? I mean I don't even know why I'm wasting time writing this.... Why do you think the chart I posted above had an S&P average PE for the last 50 years of like 16... and yet the chart of the S&P has been up up up. The reason for that is EARNINGS GROWTH..... see how that works??!! PE Price to earnings!!!. Its like a simple equation dude.. Your multiple is price divided by earnings. If you have a constant multiple (give or take) for fifty plus years... and yet the chart goes up and up....ITS EARNINGS. Now.. and I'll listen to your retort... What major catalysts going forward do you see that will lead to overall earnings growth? VS... catalysts that could lead to earnings declines and a recession? More QE? Trump repatriating money? Perhaps bringing outdated by 50 year factory jobs back? Cause all I see is hype and hope. And that is not the way it works. Its ALL HYPE bro.But I see a lot that points the other way. No the market just goes up and up... because it just goes up and up. You gotta be a Millennial. Have you ever even lived during a recession in your adult life? You know that historic average of 16 on the S&P? .... You know how we are at 25 plus right now? Why is that? I want to hear your reasoning. Split the difference on that and say the multiple reverts toward the mean. Call it 20. You know where that would put the S&P? 1840... right where it was last February. DOW... 16K bro. Never happen? Ok. I forgot... markets always go up...because.... "they just do". This is why millennials need to get off of Facebook and Youtube, ...out of mommy's basement... and hit the real friggin world. See how bad your life really sucks when you have a college degree and you're making $10 and actually have to pay for shelter, lights, internet, food, and a car. Then come back and tell me happy days are here again in the markets. And up they go... forever. That being said.... I'll meet ya halfway on the bet... the DOW sees 19.2 before 20.8 Hows that?
You're stuck. And thanks for thinking of me as a millennial! Good luck with your INVESTING. Happy Holidays. PS. Here's a short-term catalyst you missed, for the upside... Minimal EOY selling and profit-taking. Why? Chances are cap gains tax rates will be lower in 2017. No change at worst. And that means 15 months or more before cap gains tax need to be paid on this years yet unrealized, profits.