One Freakin' Star. If I only knew where to hit I would vote for myself many times. Yes folks good morning. Those of you brave enough to contact me have lavished praise- what a day to come back and make a big call. But what's amazing of course is not the call but the whole sequence of events as laid out it's nice for folks that we do this with the market DOWN 200 as well. Anyway in keeping with predictions the market is now not liking the bailout and it doesn't seem like enough money to me. What is really scary here is that although this all seems based on housing and Paulson and others continually point to housing, part of this crisis is the bluff that financial institutions can cover withdrawls or guarantee your money. That is the very cornerstone of a stable society; if that wall breaks-- murders will ensue. I've got stks that were bought in the 1920's that I can't get my hands on for another ten years, what if the bank holding them goes out of business? What if those stks are worth more than the gov's gunarantee of 200,000? What if everyone at once asked the gov for their $200,000? Insurance is a scam isn't it? Even when covered your not if everyone comes a knockin' at the same time. And so it seems that under the covers here there is a real fear that people will all ask for their money to be safe at once... if that makes any sense. Ok. Todays a big day for the market. We should start nicely down and claw our way back. It's a day to buy something. And that's where the trouble starts. Having been frozen for so long in Iceland.... by now you know this is a metaphor for not trading-- how many of you have been drinking vodka with me there? I notice no one talking back but that's fine... today is the day we must buy something so I've started my scans and it's been tough, here is where I am at 9:00 am. 1- There is something very real to the turn in housing. The ability for the new fanny and freddy to spit out loans in the $400,000 range will ignite first time buyers mortgage apps are up too, I have a ten year fixed that then goes adjustable in a bad way for my weekend house... someone like me may want to try and refinance soon. I want some exposure to housing these stks have run a lot in quiet already. So far using charts Meritage Homes has stoofd out. 2 year fall from $45 or so now $27 and since July 14 UP 98%... This seems like more than a move off the bottom, it's a new trend and a nice chart with Insider buying at $15.... Some of the suppliers probably are a good bet here, Trex which makes false wood for decks & railings and such which have both new home sales and existing home sales, add ons for renovation - TWP - was recently downgraded and took a big spike down and is reclaiming that move... prior to the analysts action it was another very nice looking chart, I like a set up like that I'll be watching Trex today. I feel the selling in commodity related names has been harsh but justified. I did not partake near as much as I should have on the way up and spent a good year cursing Bunge and Monsanto, stks I've owned in the past... One that always raced ahead proudly was fertilizer co CF. With natural gas as an input cost and no debt and $20 cash per share & a single digit PE and a link into farming which seems more in need right now than say steel... CF is a very strong choice for today. In the financial sector the expensive Blackrock is interesting. How is a $200 financial that moves $8 in a day only a mere $15 from it's HIGH????? What are they doing right? I'll throw that one at the hedge fund today and see what they say. Barrons had a piece on the oven maker MIDD. I tore it out and discarded the rest of the paper, of course, now I've misplaced it. I've always liked this company in the past ( as has Barrons) so I hope to find that tear out or hunt the story down online. The two Titans! It's quite confusing but I've been in and out many times I've owned both Titan Wheels TWI and Titan Machine TITN. It's a really bad vibe owning two names so close because when you sell one undoubtedly the other one you keep stubs it's toe and vice versa. Indeed I kept the tire co and let TITN go. TITN went on a monster run without me. Now they have both crashed back to earth and surprise! I still like the tire company. BIG tires for monster trucks in the shales and tar of canada and in the mining pits etc. More work to be done on the technical side here but another name I'm considering. So MTH, TRP, CFwill probably head off my buys followed by BLK if the hedge fund ok's it and possibly TWI and I might use SQNM which has been a great trading stock even from Iceland. The trick is to be where the money flows I don't think the buying will be widespread enough to lift vague tech like RIMM. Boy Cramer really stubbed his toe on that one! The right financial, the right homebuilder , the right supplier, the right commodity play... this is how I am thinking this morning. I hope this helps. ~ stoney
Nothing like calling a broker and being asked " How's your TED spread! " High baby, too high... Morgan Stanley now... are these just rumors being started because hedge funds know they can take these stks to zero in this environment quite quickly. A buyer for Morgan money for WAMU, will Wachovia be the real devil? It's all getting very boring in an exciting way. Ok lets step back on yesterdays action and build a little more of our thesis. Higher volume gain = accumulation day! this is actually 2nd accumulation day in a week! This has to count for something. Of course the first (on sept 11th was wiped out on the 15th) Advancers led decliners 2 to 1 we would of liked 3 to 1. The 14 year uptrend held! We'll take what we can get folks. A 50% Fib retracement lay conspicuous near by lending heft to the bottom thesis. Was the bottom climatic enough? I think so. Everyone was pointing at those lows and when we broke them badly and then reversed.... that's a bullish candlestick pattern even to a novice. Of course world events are moving at such a rate that all of this seems hopeful to say the least. Other indicators like wave theory have been of no use... but how the market forms a bottom is very useful undr any and all circumstances. This financial merging into banks of all the independent brokers except Goldman, it's the process. Has the investor given up hope? This one has. That's why he's back. ~ stoney
Bob it's Kroner over there & I just had this big sack it's tough to judge. Well here are where we thought we would be in the soup. Down $275 and on the edge of the cliff of shame & ruin new session lows and probably the time to strike. The problem? What to buy. My final work which employs 3 month chart sifts after all the research has unfortunately left me with only MIDD TREX & MERITAGE. But Meritage is way up already and indeed I uncovered a 2 year old Barrons piece which profiled it at $9 Trex (TWP), the leading maker of recycled decking, railing and fencing products could be a turnaround stock this year, says Barron's. Precipitous growth and environmental trends after its 1999 IPO helped the stock reach $50 by late 2004. Yet through overproduction and declining demand, along with quality issues and higher commodity prices, shares are now worth $8.32 (after a 15.88% gain Friday). Year-to-date as of Sept. 30th, profits excluding writedowns were miniscule at $0.09. With writedowns there's a loss of $2.35/share, that's compared to a $1.08 profit in 2006. Trex also had to renegotiate some loan covenants it violated. But even with a housing slump, still-high commodities and higher recycling and materials costs, Trex has managed to cut inventory and production costs and significantly improve its product quality... Barron's says if Trex can survive the winter building doldrums, investors could see a $25-or-more share again, or as much as a 400% return. >>talk about a nice call... so at $19 here.... a bit late to the party, but still viable. All of this ironically leaves MIDD looking great indeed in today's carnage it's down a mere 54 cents you could say that's because of the Barrons piece but it took a dip just the other day despite the article... I'm thinking that naked short reeling in might be at play here for this name shortly... weird names like EMKR are up because of that today... some threats are being sent around by the SEC today... MIDD has it's share of shorts although it has nice institutional support... in the long run it looks like MIDDLEBY, Trex and maybe a 3 day flyer on CF and or Blackrock... with Blackrock you have the CEO saying they have no exposure to Lehman in their money funds and a big no comment on AIG or WAMU... that has me a bit nervous as does the 9% drop today... but therin lays the opportunity... and CF who if it would spike up from here on the chart and set a higher low, would really qualify as a comeback play . Well time to shave and shower and do something positive. I'm sick of all of this frozen in fear feelings. I don't want the world to end. Not now. These sureing up of money funds on the sly, these breaking the dollar MM's.... It's scaring the crap out of me. That's why I stay fully invested! That's A Great name by the way For A Book About These Times, " Breaking The Dollar. " Well the Vix is soaring near 10% and Morgan is getting murdered.... we need a resolution yet again, can this keep happening? The rumors are flying the dust is in the air, everything is crazy and I'm buying an oven maker! ~ stoney
Have some USG. I have a unique approach which involves buying high and selling low. Not being a trader, except by default (no real job), and being impatient and lazy, I tend to buy whenever. I got in at around 28.20 when the Dow went down around 200 for the first time this AM. But apparently it's worth a lot more, and has been showing strength over the last week or so after an upgrade by some schmuck somewhere. If you're looking at housing shit, look at them and their wallboard/gypsum antics. I chose the wrong week to stop sniffing toothpaste.
With Morgan $3-$4 off it's low and stabilized now we should slowly turn after lunch. This from someone who went to Stanford, I only went to BU! - Stoney, I calculated several averages for all sixteen declines that were larger than Monday's 4.4% drop. On average, the Dow was 10.4% higher six months after a decline. 13.8% higher one-year after. 27.0% higher two-years after. And 45.6% higher five-years after. So if history is any guide, you would be foolish to succumb to panic. In fact, you might even want to increase your holdings. Notice that for periods of up to two years, the market has tended to perform far better than usual following large declines. Given the worry that is all around, I doubt that most investors will be able to muster sufficient courage to follow this advice. But for the few brave contrarians with the foresight to "buy when there is blood in the streets," here's a potential play: The Vanguard Real Estate Investment Trust Index (VNQ, -4.4%) . That's right. Think about pouring some money straight into the sector that sparked the whole mess. Following the dictates of our history-based trading algorithm, Index Rx recently purchased this fund with two of our model portfolios. In the end, it's a question of who are you going to trust--the media, your own emotions, or the guidance of history? I know who my money is on. Jesse Czelusta co-edits, along with his father Lawrence Czelusta, the Index Rx investment letter. Jesse has a PhD in economics from Stanford University.
Got blackrock @ $182.42.... tight stop in my mind. 1/2 position CF @ $110. UGLY HOUSING STARTS IS GOOD FOR HOUSING DUMMIES! VERY BULLISH. LESS INVENTORY THE TURN IS HERE FOLKS ASS PROMISED AND ON TIME... HERE WE GO... LETS KEEP AN EYE ON CF here, I want to add more. MIDD has been a rock all day.... heavily shorted stks should pop here folks, check out DNDN.... Oh we placed those bets just right boys!!!! SHARP SHARP UP BARS JUST HIT THE RALLY IS ON..... FOLKS I'VE DONE MY PART AND MADE ALL OF US LOOK SOLVENT AND IN JUST TWO DAYS, IF THIS RALLY DOES PAN OUT AND CONTINUE TOMORROW I SHALL REALLY HAVE DONE A GREAT JOB HERE... Here in a bastion of negativity. WHERE OH WHERE ARE MY DARN STARS?????? *Remember 22 BILLION SHARES ARE NAKED SHORT THEY HAVE TO BE COVERED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS!!!!! This is why you stay with the stoned investor ladies and gents I bring you every angle the fear the greed everything. I will only end this thread with four stars minimum!!!!! I am an old vet here at ET and deserve a better fate than this lack of damn respect.... RALLY ON DEAR MARKET WE OPEN LIMIT UP TOMORROW EXCEPT of course there is no limit anymore.... ONLY DOWN 204 NOW, ANOTHER HUNDRED POINTS OF LOVE COMING FOLKS..... THE OCEAN LINER HAS TURNED FOR THE DAY AND I'M ROWING AS FAST AS I CAN. DOWN ONLY 170 GO GO GO!!! Russia's banking sector is cracking China is at a 2 year low.... Goldman Saks as others have noted here was a great trade at $100... I did it in my wife's IRA... It's $112 now, looking to rotate into MS and then China TV! Still love UEPS folks.... I have to leave you all for the day now there is a very painful thing happening in my teeth, I fear an extraction and a root canal may be in my future, hopefully one is just a bad cavity. With this pain that I subject myself too, may it represent all the pain felt by everyone in this market. May I return to several more stars. And a market just down 90!~ stoney
What The F! What have you people done with my market? Well now I've done it. I've bought large positions in Blackrock & CF despite the fact that my own screening process pointed towards MIDD & MTH. I'll probably go with Trex tomorrow if there is a tomorrow. Buying a financial & a fast moving commodity play that's just asking for trouble.... let's start with the good news I placed these orders with the hedge fund and they have a frisky desk. My account manager took the CF position off @ $120 netting $10 but of colurse I was at the dentist and couldn't get back in touchj so they re entered the position back at the close. Blackrock was fairly stable getting as high as $191 that I saw and closing at $188.... still up $6 bucks there so if that vanishes in the morning I could crawl away with my tail between my legs and still have some spending money. But that's not what this was about.... it was a bigger picture call and a hope against hope that the whole system isn't crumbling beneath us. Gold being up $80 plus dollars is as much an eye opener as these credit spreads, large failures and forced liquidations. This unwinding could go on for months if we don't fire out into a rally quick. I feel like a salmon swimming up stream... all that work and then they die. I fly home from iceland, do this research and poof.... tomorrows watch list- MIDD } ovens UEPS } small loans in Africa & pay cards TWP } Recyclable fake wood for railings MTH } homebuilder EBHI { retail BEBE { retail UXG GSS } Gold TRE When a stock constantly trends up in this mess it's worth having on the list too and that stock is little Eddie Bower he of yesterday fame in fashion and car interiors. I don't know what's going on other than some pretty decent earnings... EBHI... BEBE is another fashion name I've been watching it's been rock steady at near $10 for a long time, I think their business has made the turn. Anyone see the wild gyrations of CEG today? WTF, that's a utility right? What's the story there? Where is $COSTAVERAGEMAN when you need him? To think I just had to pay $50K to the Government for the privilege of doing this. Huuurumph! ~ stoney
1212 232,988 15.20% -0.15 RIKB 09 0612 254,885 13.65% -0.30 RIKB 10 0317 193,989 13.32% -0.07 RIKB 13 0517 573,248 10.65% -0.10 Look at those yields from Iceland. Oh I'm close to getting back on a plane if I could afford it. With the naked shortselling police out watch these stocks- Business Services (PRAA; CSGP) Consumer Staples (CALM; TRLG; LEE; RAH) Consumer Discretionary (NTRI; HZO; LTM; TPX; PII) Retail-Wholesale (JOSB; NILE; BIG; ZLC; BWLD; ARO; GMCR; PFCB; ETH; NFLX; RRGB) Medical (ARTC; ALXN; AMED; DNDN) Industrial Products (FTEK; VPRT) Construction (BZH; SPF) Computer/Technology (NETL; EMKR; SIGM; PALM; AMSC; OTEX) Finance (DSL; CORS; EWBC; ZION; ABR; RWT) Transportation (YRCW) .... You will notice EMKR & DNDN on there those were highlighted yesterday for you.... of this list nothing stands out at first glance except PALM & GMCR...... ~ stoney
Ok DNDN and EMKR yesterday and CAEI is about to blow.... Somehow I own all these names, it's CRAZY but has some bailout finally being given to the speculative investor? Or the stoned one? Folks 123% of China Architecture is short!!!!!! How is that possible? Ok Goldman was 115 and I called my wife to tell her I made her $15 bucks in her IRA... and I turned around and stared at the screen and in one tick it was $107. " never mind. Go back to the gym. Nothing. Forget it. Yes I'm still in a lousy mood.... " That kind of market. Folks we are flying here all these buys and somehow I haven't even gone to my Etrade account yet!!! That's where the REAL crazy stuff is like CAEI... how long can this short squeeze go on and should you all be looking at these names??? For what it's worth folks, I think it's time to go shopping.... in China! ~ stoney