Half way through life and not close to being consistent

Discussion in 'Journals' started by gamblingman, Jun 2, 2014.

  1. Mo06

    Mo06

    So you regard a 2% loss as a 'terrible week' ............?

    Sounds pretty tame to me.

    I suggest you trade one tenth of your normal size until you return to consistent profitability.
     
    #191     Jul 19, 2014
  2. Good idea, I'll do that for new trades. The problem is I have pretty large positions on already on the existing ones which mess up my P&L.
     
    #192     Jul 19, 2014
  3. You can trade longer time frames for example weekly or monthly but your bias needs to have some basis in reality. For example, you need to have some type of edge that determines your bias.

    The following can apply:

    1) You are a math genius quant who developed a system that you back and forward tested and these losses fall within the margin of error based on current volatility.

    2) You used TA on larger time frames and the market due to some factor not based in the charts for example a fed report caused price to not follow your plan. Also, your stop had some basis in reality.

    3) You used some other system that you don't want to mention to determine your bias.

    Bias always needs to be based on science and statistics. If not, its worthless and you are gambling.

    For example, in a trading book I read a long time ago, there is a higher % chance that the markets will go up following the Christmas holiday. This was back tested over many years.




     
    #193     Jul 19, 2014
  4. Cause the second you ramp up the automated trades they disappoint.
    I increased my size on the automated trades which had decent performance so far this year and right then the performance dropped from up over 20% to up 14% which means that most of the new trades suck right now.
    It's never as easy as it seems ;).
    I'm feeling shitty (not cause of my P&L), in bed the third day now, may have caught a really bad cold on the trip back.
     
    #194     Jul 21, 2014
  5. Even when you think it can't get any worse, it sure can. Today 80% of my swing trades went against me. That's hard to do considering there's about 320 automated trades and on a bad day only 60 or 65% usually go south, but not 80. There wasn't any huge outlier, it was evenly spread across all trades. - fun times.
    To get more out of the journal I'll start breaking up my daily P&L by strategy:
    Auto Trades: -3284 (320 equities or 160 pairs trades) - average hold time 8 weeks
    Short Market: -2321 (short SPY, short ES, long VX, short NQ, short QQQ, short SPX) -
    Investments: -967 (those are a handful of long term holdings) -
    Other Option Positions: -1373 (-592 came from bid up volatility in WAG, -460 came from a calendar in INTC and -252 from a short put in ANF) - average hold time 4-6 weeks
     
    #195     Jul 22, 2014
  6. better day for automated trades, most losses today came from short S&P and investments

    Auto Trades: 3168
    Short Market: -3440
    Investments: -1362
    Other Option Positions: -254 (biggest loss -482 came from long call spread in UIS which had bad earnings)
     
    #196     Jul 23, 2014
  7. Finally a green day. Barely sick any more either, just a persistent cough. Tried to work out but sucked big time. Couldn't even run for 40 minutes, had to walk several times in between.

    Auto Trades: 1082
    Short Market: -243
    Investments: -30
    Daytrade: 1475 (very rare occasion/setup but today it hit)
    Other Option Positions: 1612 (biggest win in ISRG 256$)
     
    #197     Jul 24, 2014
  8. Two green days in a row. However still dowk 4k1 for the week so nothing to get excited about. The daily losses pretty much all originated from some really bad pairs trade performance (3k5 from that and from long term holdings, mostly coal stocks).

    Here's today's performance
    Auto Trades: -84
    Short Market: 3146
    Investments: -150
    Other Option Positions:762 (biggest losers long SWKS and short Z, biggest winner long CMG).
     
    #198     Jul 25, 2014
  9. Days like today are the perfect days for my way of trading. Nothing moves and all positions are coming in. Tomorrow is going to suck, I'm long HLF and they are down big after hrs and I'm also long ACI which is a wild card for tomorrow's earnings.
    Here are today's results:
    Auto Trades: 1088
    Short Market: 486 (mostly cause all options came in after the weekend)
    Investments: -158
    Other Option Positions: 1378 (biggest win in CMG, SWKS and Z [which I closed], biggest loss in WAG)
     
    #199     Jul 28, 2014
  10. Finally the market is moving in my direction. Had a good trading day, except some short puts went bad. I've a couple of short buyins I've to take care of tomorrow, guess IB couldn't get the stock to borrow.

    Here are today's results:
    Auto Trades: 2823
    Short Market: 3866
    Investments: 1152 (ACI had earnings which was the bulk of that)
    Other Option Positions: -1671 biggest losers short put in WAG and HLF earnings play as mentioned in yesterday's post.
     
    #200     Jul 29, 2014