People seem to be forgetting that 2011 might just be a complete repeat of 2010. Heavy selling in the summer followed by a massive rally on valuation in the fall. Count me out from the crowd that thinks the bull market is over. I've been in cash all summer, so the drop is a good thing. Best indicator of the reversal was probably Shortie posting bullishly on the SPX and pairing it with a VIX/VXX short. When trades look too easy they usually aren't.
There was never a bull market, this rally was based on nothing more than stimulus being pumped into the markets over the last 2 years, without BUBBLE ben bernanke and money printing ways the Dow would still be trading under 8000.
It's true in the sense... You cant just use the stock market. You have to adjust it for inflation (and not the #s that the gov't reports - google commodity prices.) You have to calculate 1 beta stocks and the USD. The returns are nothing special. There was VERY little REAL wealth created. In other news, I got a 15 pt profit here... want us to get to 1230 though. I had a okay overnight trade and may be being greedy here... not trying to hold ES long over the weekend. Would so if it were options. Decisions, decisions
i nailed some good turns this summer as documented in my "top 10 market call" thread while you were in cash (but we know you are permabull so i don't buy your after the fact being in cash story). and stop spreading this BS about how I was super bullish this summer. you keep saying this and then quotes your own statements as if it confirms anything. as i posted, before the sh*t hit the fan i was in iron condors and short VXX. both took it up the asss. my bear call spread on VXX may come back i think. maybe condors come back as well. i have covered short call part in iron condors, now we wait and see. some upside or/and volatility drop would not hurt.
I think most of the "to the moon" folks have probably given up on that. You'll always have institutional and buy-and-hold types that will stay long regardless. I've just noticed that most people I talk to sound border-line apocalyptic, even on CNBC there isn't the usual level of hyper-bullishness. A month ago the market was going to infinity now we're talking recession. It will be interesting to see what some of the sentiment surveys say. Ironically, it was also about Europe. Although the periphery problems of 2010 are now issues with the "important" countries. My contention was always that the European federalists were too committed to union, they'd do anything to save it. Whether they can is another issue entirely. The fact that the Euro isn't collapsing(except agains the CHF, but what isn't collapsing against CHF?) is telling, although it's not like the USD is the strongest comparison.
I don't always agree with Blodget and his boys, but they're probably right on this one--this isn't just your "normal" crash. http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/problem-market-crash-112739473.html At least we know Blodget > Nine_Ender